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Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs predictions, picks and best bets

Skip Snow  |  Sportsbook Wire

The Chicago White Sox (35-36) and Chicago Cubs (39-33) will close out a two-game set at Wrigley Field Wednesday at 8:05 p.m. ET.

The visiting White Sox took Tuesday's opener, 3-1. The Wrigley setback was a rare one for the Cubs who have now lost just twice at home since May 26. Overall, the Cubs have played .667 ball (24-12) in their home environs.

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; for a full-set of today's sports odds, access them at Paste BN Sports.

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers

Jun 14, 2019; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (27) delivers the ball against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. (Photo Credit: David Banks - Paste BN Sports)

RHP Lucas Giolito vs. LHP Jon Lester

Giolito battled some control problems in his last, but he still totes a 2.22 ERA/3.71 xFIP into this start on the North Side. Also, the 24-year-old had some problems pitching from ahead in the count in that last effort, so its not too much of a concern. Giolito has held current Cubs bats to a .543 OPS, 0.77 ISO and is, by just about any measure (including a significant uptick in velocity), enjoying a breakout season in 2019.

Lester threw a combined 225 pitches over two starts in early May. Since then, the veteran port-sider has logged a 7.59 ERA. He owns a 4.08 ERA/4.20 xFIP on the season. Lester's trouble since those noted May starts involve a lot of barreled-up contact; he's yielded 5 HR over his last two starts.

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs: By the Numbers

  • The Cubs' offense has struggled of late. Chicago's NL entry owns a whiff-heavy .711 OPS in June. RHPs have logged a 23% SO rate against the Cubs during this stretch.
  • The White Sox are tied for the MLB lead with a five-game spread in their actual-vs.-Pythagorean won-loss records (35 wins vs. 30, respectively). That spread provides even better leverage when the team owns an actual record near .500.

  • The White Sox sport a well-below-average .728 OPS when facing lefties, and that's with a very high .340 BABIP in that platoon split. They are a right-heavy attack (88% of PA vs. LHPs) that just doesn't leverage that advantage.
  • The Pale Hose own a 4.31 bullpen ERA, but that's a misleading one due to some generous BABIPs around the margins. Chicago's xFIP sits at 4.94, which is the sixth-worst in MLB.
  • The Cubs can leverage that last bullet: They rank fourth in the league with a high-walk .783 OPS in first-time-through PAs against relievers.

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs: Picks and Betting Tips

</div> <p> <strong>Moneyline:</strong> A <strong>-152/+132</strong> line on the home side is one to watch. Keep an eye on the weather (50% of game-time rain) and a drift toward -145 perhaps. Take the Cubs and their fully rested bullpen if you get the right price.</p> <p> <strong>Run line:</strong> The Cubs are at <strong>-1.5, +146</strong>, while the White Sox are -172.</p> <p> <strong>Over/under:</strong> The over is slated at <strong>7</strong> and is at <strong>-128</strong>.</p> <p><strong>MORE:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/burmese-python-discovered-in-surprising-place/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Burmese python discovered in surprising place</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/ufc-fighter-makes-opponent-flinch-by-screaming-in-his-face-during-staredown/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">UFC fighter makes opponent flinch by screaming in his face during staredown</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/rangers-mike-minor-200th-strike-out-after-not-catching-foul-ball-on-purpose/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Rangers ripped for not catching easy foul ball so pitcher could reach milestone</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/jaguars-gardner-minshew-meets-uncle-rico/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Gardner Minshew finally got to meet 'Uncle Rico' and NFL fans loved it</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/packers-eagles-goal-line-passes/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Packers' puzzling goal-line decisions end in disaster</a></p></body></html>

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