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Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals predictions, picks and best bets

Esten McLaren  |  Sportsbook Wire

The AL Centreal-rival Minnesota Twins (48-25) and Kansas City Royals (25-49) open up a four-game series at Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium Thursday while sitting first and last in the division, respectively. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. Eastern.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook; for a full-set of today's sports betting odds , access them at Paste BN Sports .

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals: Projected Starting Pitchers

RHP Jake Odorizzi vs. RHP Glenn Sparkman

Odorizzi is 10-2 through 14 starts with a 2.24 ERA across 76 1/3 innings. His xFIP is cause for concern; however, as it sits 4.27, inflated by a ground-ball rate of just 29.4 percent and opponent hard-contact rate of 40.2 percent. He's striking out a career-best 10.02 hitters per nine. He has a higher ERA but has given up fewer homers on the road. Last outing: Odorizzi allowed four earned runs for the first time since April 5, going six innings against the Royals at home last week.

Sparkman took the loss against Odorizzi and the Twins last week, giving up five runs (four earned) over five innings. It was the first time all year he gave up more than one homer in a start and just the third time he walked more than one batter. He has a stellar 2.40 ERA over 30 innings in his home park this year, allowing the opposition to hit .248/.294/.376.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals: By the Numbers

  • Minnesota won the first four meetings between the two this year, with Kansas City taking the most recent matchup. The series is 3-1-1 against the over/under but three of five were decided by two or more runs.
  • The Royals are 14-23 straight-up at home this year and 18-19 against the run line. They've played to the over in 21 of 37 home games.

  • The Twins are 24-12 as the visitors in 2019. They've covered the spread 21 times and played to 23 overs.
  • Minnesota has the best team OPS against right-handed pitching in baseball at .838. Kansas City ranks 17th with a .731 team rate.
  • Both bullpens rank in the bottom half of the league with ERAs over 4.50.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals: Key Injuries

Twins INFs Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza are both on the 10-day injured list, as is OF Byron Buxton.

Royals SS Adalberto Mondesi is day-to-day due to a groin issue.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals: Picks and Betting Tips

</div> <p> <strong>Moneyline:</strong> There's tremendous value on the <strong>Royals</strong> at <strong>+170</strong> at home. Odorizzi is the better starter and the Twins have the better offense, but Sparkman's home numbers have been too great to warrant such a high number for the hosts.</p> <p> <strong>Run line:</strong> The Royals are also a fine play at <strong>+100</strong> to cover <strong>+1.5</strong> while trusting in Sparkman.</p> <p> <strong>Over/under:</strong> The projected total of <strong>10</strong> is the second-highest on Thursday's slate. Take the <strong>UNDER (-118)</strong> in an exact rematch of a game which played to nine runs last weekend.</p> <p> <strong>Esten's June record:</strong> 41-42-2</p> <p> <em>Follow Esten on Twitter <a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/EstenMcLaren">@EstenMcLaren</a> </em> </p> <p><strong>MORE:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/burmese-python-discovered-in-surprising-place/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Burmese python discovered in surprising place</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/ufc-fighter-makes-opponent-flinch-by-screaming-in-his-face-during-staredown/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">UFC fighter makes opponent flinch by screaming in his face during staredown</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/packers-eagles-goal-line-passes/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Packers' puzzling goal-line decisions end in disaster</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/rangers-mike-minor-200th-strike-out-after-not-catching-foul-ball-on-purpose/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Rangers ripped for not catching easy foul ball so pitcher could reach milestone</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/an-11-player-wall-couldnt-stop-this-indirect-free-kick-game-winner/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">An 11-player wall couldn't stop this indirect free kick game-winner</a></p></body></html>

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