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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies predictions, picks and best bets

Joe Williams  |  Sportsbook Wire

The New York Mets (37-41) travel to meet the Philadelphia Phillies (39-38) on Monday at Citizens Bank Park to open a four-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. Eastern.

These rivals split the first six meetings, while the Phillies won two of three from April 15-17 at 'The Vault', outscoring the Mets 23-12 over three games.

Odds courtesy of Bet365; for a full-set of today's sports betting odds, access them at Paste BN Sports.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Projected Starting Pitchers

LHP Steven Matz vs. RHP Zach Eflin

Matz heads into Monday with a 5-5 record, 4.28 ERA and 1.37 WHIP across 14 starts this season, although he has struggled on the road. He is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 36 innings at home, and 2-5 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP across 37 2/3 innings as a visitor. It's the same splits in two outings against Philly this season, too. He allowed just one earned run and three hits with two walks and six strikeouts in a win at Citi Field on April 22, but he was tagged for eight runs (six earned) and four hits with two homers allowed and he did not retire a batter in a loss on April 16 in Philadelphia.

Eflin replaces RHP Jake Arrieta, who has been pushed back to Tuesday. While Eflin is 6-7 on the season, he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 14 starts over 86 innings, posting a .239 opponent batting average. He has faced the Mets just once this season, allowing four runs (three earned) and one walk with three strikeouts over four innings in a 9-0 loss at Citi Field on April 23.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: By the Numbers

  • The Mets have posted an 8-22 record across the past 30 road games, and they're 3-10 in the past 13 road outings against a right-handed starting pitcher.
  • New York is 7-3 in Matz's past 10 starts against NL East foes, but he is 1-5 over the past six outings on the road.

  • The Phillies have lost seven in a row, and they're 0-7 in the past seven against the NL East, too.
  • Philadelphia is 1-5 in the past six vs. LHPs, and they're 0-7 in their past seven against teams with a losing record.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Picks and Betting Tips

</div> <p> <strong>Moneyline:</strong> The Mets (+115) have struggled recently at Citizens Bank Park, going 1-4 in the past five trips. They're also 1-4 in the past five starts by Matz against the <strong>Phillies (-135)</strong>, while also going 1-4 in his past five in Philly. Due to Philly's superior numbers in this series, roll with the home side.</p> <p> <strong>Run line:</strong> The Mets ( <strong>+1.5, -170)</strong> are a very risky play at this number because of Matz's terrible splits. The Phillies <strong>(-1.5, +150)</strong> are also a dangerous play because of their recent struggles.</p> <p> <strong>Over/under:</strong> The <strong>OVER</strong> ( <strong>10, -110)</strong> is an impressive 9-3-1 in the past 13 overall for the Mets, including 6-2-1 in the past nine road outings. Due to Matz's struggles on the road, the over is the play. The over is also 4-1 in the past five home games for Philadelphia vs. LHPs.</p> <p> <em>Follow Joe on Twitter <strong> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/JoeWilliamsVI">@JoeWilliamsVI</a> </strong> </em> </p> <p><strong>MORE:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/burmese-python-discovered-in-surprising-place/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Burmese python discovered in surprising place</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/ufc-fighter-makes-opponent-flinch-by-screaming-in-his-face-during-staredown/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">UFC fighter makes opponent flinch by screaming in his face during staredown</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/packers-eagles-goal-line-passes/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Packers' puzzling goal-line decisions end in disaster</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/rangers-mike-minor-200th-strike-out-after-not-catching-foul-ball-on-purpose/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Rangers ripped for not catching easy foul ball so pitcher could reach milestone</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/an-11-player-wall-couldnt-stop-this-indirect-free-kick-game-winner/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">An 11-player wall couldn't stop this indirect free kick game-winner</a></p></body></html>

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