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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, predictions, picks and best bets

Joe Williams  |  Sportsbook Wire

The Philadelphia Phillies (37-43) and Atlanta Braves (41-38) hook up on Independence Day at 7:20 p.m. Eastern in the rubber match of a three-game set between these National League rivals

The Phillies won the first game of the series 2-0 on Tuesday, and Atlanta returned the favor by a 9-2 score on Wednesday. Have a happy and safe Fourth of July!

Odds courtesy of Bet365; for a full-set of today's sports betting odds, access them at Paste BN Sports.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Projected Starting Pitchers

RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Mike Soroka

Eflin takes the ball looking to get back over .500. His splits are pretty amazing, as he is 5-2 with a 3.04 ERA and .249 opponent batting average in seven starts at home. He is 2-5 with a 3.62 ERA, .265 opponent batting average and eight homers allowed in 49 2/3 innings on the road. He hasn't faced the Braves this season, but he is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA across three career starts against Atlanta with a stellar .203 opponent batting average.

Soroka enters the day with a 9-1 record, 2.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, as he has really emerged as one of the top starting pitchers in the majors. Oddly enough, he has a 4-1 record and 3.28 ERA with a .252 opponent batting average in six starts at home and is much better on the road with a 5-0 record, 1.29 ERA and .171 opponent batting average. This will be his first career appearance against Philadelphia.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: By the Numbers

  • The Phillies are just 2-6 across Eflin's past eight outings, and 7-19 in his last 26 starts on the road. In addition, the Phillies are 0-5 in his past five against winning teams.
  • Philadelphia has posted a 3-9 record in the past 12 during Game 3 of a series, and they're 2-8 in the past 10 against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or under.

  • The Braves have cashed in 14 of the past 17 starts overall while going 5-0 in the past five home outings. They're also 8-0 across Soroka's past eight against NL East clubs.
  • The Phillies have managed to win just two of their past nine battles at SunTrust Park in suburban Atlanta.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Picks and Betting Tips

</div> <p> <strong>Moneyline:</strong> The <strong>Phillies (+135)</strong> have a .500 pitcher up against one of the best in the game for the <strong>Braves (-155)</strong>. Atlanta is the easy play here behind Soroka.</p> <p> <strong>Run line:</strong> The Phillies ( <strong>+1.5, -140)</strong> aren't a good play behind Eflin. The Braves <strong>(-1.5, +120)</strong> are a much better play, especially since they have an All-Star on the hill working in his home stadium. Eflin has had issues on the road, too.</p> <p> <strong>Over/under:</strong> The <strong>UNDER</strong> ( <strong>10.5, -120)</strong> is a slam-dunk play (or a strong play like my buddy Johnny Parlay likes to call them). Soroka has been untouchable, and the line is rather high given his sub-1.00 WHIP and sparkling ERA.</p> <p> <em>Follow Joe on Twitter <strong> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/JoeWilliamsVI">@JoeWilliamsVI</a> </strong> </em> </p> <p><strong>MORE:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/burmese-python-discovered-in-surprising-place/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Burmese python discovered in surprising place</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/ufc-fighter-makes-opponent-flinch-by-screaming-in-his-face-during-staredown/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">UFC fighter makes opponent flinch by screaming in his face during staredown</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/draymond-green-tried-to-bluff-a-poker-pro-and-lost-everything/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Draymond Green tried to bluff a poker pro and lost everything</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/ad-astra-brad-pitt-explained-right-wrong/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Where Ad Astra went right and where it went very wrong</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/mariners-felix-hernandez-walk-off-mound-emotional/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">See Felix Hernandez's emotional walk off the mound for the Mariners</a></p></body></html>

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