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Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, predictions, picks and best bets

Skip Snow  |  Sportsbook Wire

The Philadelphia Phillies (59-54) and Arizona Diamondbacks (57-57) meet on Wednesday night at 9:40 p.m. Eastern. The contest marks the rubber match of a three-game set in Phoenix.

It also marks a match-up of two recent imports on the mound - Jason Vargas (from the New York Mets) and Zac Gallen (from the Miami Marlins) were acquired in late-July deadline deals.

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; for a full set of today's sports odds, access them at Paste BN Sports.

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers

LHP Jason Vargas vs. RHP Zac Gallen

Vargas owns a 3.93 ERA, a would-be personal best since logging a 3.71 mark with the Royals in 2014. But Vargas has benefited from a .252 overall BABIP and a similar number in several clutch splits. His xFIP (5.08) is over a run higher than his ERA. Albeit in small doses, the 36-year-old southpaw has a shaky career line against current Arizona bats (.781 OPS allowed). Vargas is backed by a bullpen which has been league-average overall but better since the All-Star break.

Gallen is a rookie who has made seven starts, notching a 2.72 ERA and 4.46 xFIP over 36 1/3 innings. The 23-year-old righty has done a decent job limiting hard contact while fanning 10.70 batters per nine. Gallen hasn't pitched since July 30; he experienced control problems in one other start this season off of long rest (July 13). He is also backed by a middle-of-the-pack relief corps.

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: By the Numbers

  • The Diamondbacks have sometimes struggled in their home environment this season, but they've tallied 36 runs over their last four tilts at home. Over those four games, Arizona has amassed a 1.032 OPS. Arizona's overall second-half OPS of .800 ranks eighth in MLB.
  • The Phillies have batted just .250/.315/.413 since the break. Their .728 OPS over that stretch ranks 23rd in the league.

  • The Philly lineup leans a bit to the right and has some trouble against RHPs (.734 OPS).
  • Arizona has logged a tougher strength of schedule among the two clubs. To wit, the Phillies are five games over .500 despite having a negative run differential; the Diamondbacks are a .500 club despite scoring 5.2 runs per game against 4.6 allowed.
  • Over the last three years (2017-19), Arizona is a combined 13-5 against Philadelphia.
  • OPS-wise, Arizona hits 100 points better (.843 vs. .742) against left-handed pitching.
  • The Diamondbacks have averaged an impressive 5.2 RPG, but some under-the-surface analytics point to even more potential. Case in point: Arizona has logged a .274 BABIP in high-leverage situations.

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Picks and Betting Tips

</div> <p> <strong>Moneyline:</strong> Arizona is tabbed as a home favorite. The <strong>Diamondbacks</strong> are a decent-value play at <strong>-140</strong>.</p> <p> <strong>Run line:</strong> The Diamondbacks are a lesser value to cover -1.5 runs at +146. Arizona plays a lot of one-run games.</p> <p> <strong>Over/under:</strong> The <strong>OVER (9)</strong> is priced at <strong>-122</strong>. A zag here is backed up by a couple ATS trends but at a lower confidence level than Arizona as a side.</p> <p><strong>MORE:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/jalen-hurts-oklahoma-heisman-alabama-stats-passing-highlights/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Jalen Hurts solidifies spot as a Heisman favorite with another monster game</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/how-to-watch-washington-state-vs-utah-ncaa-football-live-stream-schedule-tv-channel-start-time/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">How to Watch Washington State vs. Utah, NCAA Football Live Stream, Schedule, TV Channel, Start Time</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/06/mystery-steelhead-caught-wedding-ring-attached-solved/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Mystery of fish caught with wedding ring attached solved</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/nfl-defense-rankings-2019-season-patriots-broncos-vikings/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">All 32 NFL teams' 2019 defenses, ranked</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/ad-astra-brad-pitt-explained-right-wrong/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Where Ad Astra went right and where it went very wrong</a></p></body></html>

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