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St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds, predictions, picks and best bets

Esten McLaren  |  Sportsbook Wire

The St. Louis Cardinals (64-56) play their third of a four-game set against the Cincinnati Reds (57-64) at Great American Ball Park Saturday at 6:40 p.m. Eastern.

The two clubs split the first two games of the series. The Reds won the opener 2-1 while the Cards took a 13-4 victory Friday.

Odds courtesy of Bet365; for a full-set of today's sports betting odds, access them at Paste BN Sports.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Projected Starting Pitchers

RHP Miles Mikolas vs. RHP Anthony DeSclafani

Mikolas enters play with a 4.13 ERA and 4.28 xFIP through 24 starts and 137 1/3 innings. He's striking out 6.62 batters per nine innings with just 1.51 walks and a reasonable 1.25 homers allowed. Lefties are doing most of the damage against him with a .300/.357/.510 slash line. His ERA rises to 6.34 on the road, where 12 of his 19 home runs against have been surrendered. Last outing: Mikolas had a good stretch snapped by the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving up seven hits, a walk and six runs (five earned) over five innings.

DeSclafani owns a 4.51 ERA with a 4.40 xFIP offering hope for only slight improvement. He's striking out 9.41 hitters per nine against 2.75 walks and 1.84 home runs against. His ground-ball rate is below his career average at 39.1 percent and 17.6 percent of fly balls are leaving the park. He has been considerably better at home with a 3.70 ERA through 58 1/3 innings. Last outing: DeSclafani gave up six earned runs with two homers over a four-inning loss against the Washington Nationals.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: By the Numbers

  • St. Louis is up 8-5 in the head-to-head season series. It has covered seven straight spreads. The series is 5-7-1 against the over/under and had played to three straight unders before Friday's game topped the projection.
  • The Cardinals are 6-4 straight up over their last 10 but just 2-8 against the O/U. The Reds are 4-6 SU and 6-3-1 against the O/U.
  • The Reds are 9-4 in their last 13 home games against right-handed starters and 9-4 in their last 13 overall at home.
  • The active Reds roster ranks fifth in baseball with a .848 collective OPS in the second half of the season. The Cardinals are just 24th with a team rate of .738.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Key Injuries

Cardinals OFs Jose Martinez (shoulder) and Tyler O'Neill (wrist) remain sidelined.

Reds 1B Joey Votto (back) has missed two straight games. 3B Eugenio Suarez (thumb) is day-to-day.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Picks and Betting Tips

</div> <p> <strong>Moneyline:</strong> Get good value on the <strong>Reds</strong> at <strong>+100</strong> with DeSclafani having considerably better location splits than Mikolas. The Reds also have the more powerful offense of late.</p> <p> <strong>Run line:</strong> Stick with the outright rather than laying <strong>-160</strong> for Cincinnati to cover the spread of <strong>+1.5</strong>. St. Louis has covered the spread in 35 of 63 road games and Cincinnati has covered in just 27 of 63 at home.</p> <p> <strong>Over/under:</strong> Go with the <strong>OVER (9, -115)</strong> on a low projection. The Reds should be able to do most of the damage against Mikolas.</p> <p> <strong>Esten's August record:</strong> 15-16</p> <p> <em>Follow Esten on Twitter <a rel="noopener" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/EstenMcLaren">@EstenMcLaren</a> and follow SportsbookWire at <a rel="noopener" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/SportsBookWire">@SportsbookWire</a>.</em> </p> <p><strong>MORE:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/jalen-hurts-oklahoma-heisman-alabama-stats-passing-highlights/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Jalen Hurts solidifies spot as a Heisman favorite with another monster game</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/draymond-green-tried-to-bluff-a-poker-pro-and-lost-everything/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Draymond Green tried to bluff a poker pro and lost everything</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/ad-astra-brad-pitt-explained-right-wrong/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Where Ad Astra went right and where it went very wrong</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/06/mystery-steelhead-caught-wedding-ring-attached-solved/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Mystery of fish caught with wedding ring attached solved</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/nfl-defense-rankings-2019-season-patriots-broncos-vikings/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">All 32 NFL teams' 2019 defenses, ranked</a></p></body></html>

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