Skip to main content

Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, predictions, picks and best bets

Esten McLaren  |  Sportsbook Wire

The Washington Nationals (68-57) and Pittsburgh Pirates (52-73) play their third of a four-game set at PNC Park Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.

Odds courtesy of Bet365; for a full-set of today's sports betting odds, access them at Paste BN Sports.

Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Projected Starting Pitchers

LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Corbin enters Wednesday with a 3.34 ERA and 3.62 xFIP through 25 starts and 153 2/3 innings. His K/9 is an elite 10.54, and his 2.87 walks per nine are manageable, albeit above his career average. He strands 76.7% of base runners and hasn't been punished too much by a slightly elevated 13.3% HR/FB. He has limited opposing left-handed batters to a .195/.266/.257 slash line, but he has been much worse on the road with a 5.13 ERA and .332 opponent wOBA. Last outing: Corbin allowed just a solo homer over a six-inning no-decision, striking out eight with four walks.

Musgrove has been taking fans and bettors on a rollercoaster ride for much of the season. He sports a 4.59 ERA and 4.42 xFIP with 8.13 K's per nine and 2.10 walks. He strands just 63.7% of base runners, meaning many of his 1.18 home runs per nine have been of the multi-run variety. Musgrove has been at his worst at home with a 5.10 ERA and .330 opponent wOBA. Last outing: Musgrove's coming off one of his best starts of the year, striking out nine with no walks while giving up two earned runs over 7 1/3 innings in a no-decision.

Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates: By the Numbers

  • The Pirates are up 3-2 in the season series after the clubs split the first two games of this four-game set. The head-to-head series is 2-3 against the over/under.
  • Washington is now 7-3 straight up over its last 10 games, the Pirates are 4-6. The Nationals are 6-4 against the O/U and the Pirates are 5-5.

  • The Pirates' active roster ranks last in baseball with a .702 team OPS, boding well for Corbin. Current Nationals hitters rank eighth with a .799 team rate against righties.
  • Washington needs Corbin to go deep. The Nationals bullpen ranks 29th with a 5.55 aggregate ERA. The Pirates rank 14th at 3.74.

Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Key Injuries

Nationals 2B Brian Dozier will miss the rest of the series while on the paternity list.

Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Picks and Betting Tips

</div> <p> <strong>Moneyline:</strong> The <strong>Nationals</strong> are a fairly safe play at <strong>-155</strong> with the better starter and the superior offense. Corbin's road woes should balance out against Pittsburgh's awful plate approach against lefties.</p> <p> <strong>Run line:</strong> Get much better value with the <strong>+100</strong> for Washington to cover <strong>-1.5</strong> and win by two or more. It's a strong play with Corbin projected to go deep and save the bullpen from another disaster.</p> <p> <strong>Over/under:</strong> Lean slightly to the <strong>UNDER (9, -125)</strong> with a small wager. Neither team has shown much preference for higher numbers of late and the Pirates are unlikely to offer much help toward the over.</p> <p> <strong>Esten's August record:</strong> 21-17</p> <p> <em>Follow Esten on Twitter <a rel="noopener" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/EstenMcLaren">@EstenMcLaren</a> and follow SportsbookWire at <a rel="noopener" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/SportsBookWire">@SportsbookWire</a>.</em> </p> <p><strong>MORE:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/jalen-hurts-oklahoma-heisman-alabama-stats-passing-highlights/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Jalen Hurts solidifies spot as a Heisman favorite with another monster game</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/draymond-green-tried-to-bluff-a-poker-pro-and-lost-everything/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Draymond Green tried to bluff a poker pro and lost everything</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/ad-astra-brad-pitt-explained-right-wrong/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Where Ad Astra went right and where it went very wrong</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/06/mystery-steelhead-caught-wedding-ring-attached-solved/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Mystery of fish caught with wedding ring attached solved</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/nfl-defense-rankings-2019-season-patriots-broncos-vikings/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">All 32 NFL teams' 2019 defenses, ranked</a></p></body></html>

Facebook Twitter Email