Houston Astros at Washington Nationals World Series Game 3 odds, picks and best bets

The Houston Astros and Washington Nationals meet for Game 3 of the World Series Friday at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Astros are down two games to none as the series shifts to Nationals Park for three straight games. Below is a breakdown of the Astros vs. Nationals sports gambling odds and lines, with sports betting tips on the moneyline, spread and Over/Under, along with suggested bets.

Astros at Nationals: Projected starting pitchers

RHP Zack Greinke vs. RHP Anibal Sanchez

Greinke owns a 6.43 ERA in 14 October innings. In the regular season, he registered a 2.93 ERA/3.74 xFIP. The veteran righty posted a fine 2.64 ERA on the road. Greinke has a solid career line against current Washington bats.

Sanchez was solid against the Los Angeles Dodgers in an Oct. 6 NLDS start. He was tremendous in going 7 2/3 shutout frames against the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLCS on Oct. 11. Sanchez threw 107 pitches in his beauty against the Cardinals. He scuffled during the season in games after 100-something turns, but this start will be on 13 days' rest. The veteran right-hander logged a 3.85 ERA/5.10 xFIP over 166 regular-season innings. Sanchez is a struggler the third time through a batting order, so a long outing Friday seems unlikely.

Astros at Nationals: By the numbers

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• The Nationals have done something only three teams have done before by winning eight straight postseason games in a single year.

• The bullpen is Washington's Achilles' heel. The Nationals struggled mightily in the first half and logged a 5.27 group ERA (27th in MLB) in the second half.
• A small, overlooked benefit of Greinke going in Game 3 at the NL park: He'll get to bat. Greinke led all pitchers with three home runs and eight extra-base hits this season.
• Houston is 23-5 in games following off days. Washington is 13-14.
• Washington batters own a .667 OPS, .095 ISO vs. Greinke.
• Houston batters own a .891 OPS, .198 ISO vs. Sanchez.
• The Nationals rank just above average in getting on base to lead off an inning. That's a key stat against Greinke who is a better pitcher from the windup, with no runners on.

Astros at Nationals: Picks and betting tips

Odds via BetMGM; access Paste BN Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8 a.m. ET.

Moneyline:HOUSTON -154 is a strong play. Recency bias plays hard into this matchup of starting pitchers; it creates value on the Astros getting off the deck in the series.

Run line: Houston -1.5 +110 is the line. Washington has covered the run line 57.2% of the time in 2019 (2nd in MLB). Let's not mess with that.

Over/Under : The Under 7.5 (+105) is priced to move compared to the Over (-125). No lean here, though.

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