Miami Heat at Orlando Magic odds, picks and best bets
The Miami Heat (32-15) take an in-state road trip Saturday to play the Orlando Magic (21-27) at Amway Center at 7 p.m. ET. We analyze Heat-Magic odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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Heat at Magic : Key injuries
Heat
- PG Kendrick Nunn (Achilles) probable
- SF Justise Winslow (back) out
Magic
- SG Evan Fournier (back) questionable
- SF Jonathan Issac (knee) out
- PG D.J. Augustin (knee) out
- PF Al-Farouq Aminu (knee) out
Heat at Magic: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access Paste BN Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Magic 102, Heat 97
Moneyline (ML)
The Heat (-128) have been up-and-down over the past four games-going 2-2 outright and 1-3 against the spread-and the Magic (+105) have been awful lately losing six out of eight games straight up and against the spread. Orlando is really well-rested with their last game being a 113-92 loss to the Heat Monday, and they have a 4-2 record when playing with a rest advantage. Conversely, the Heat are 5-8 with a minus-4.5 margin of victory when having a rest disadvantage.
There are a few other reasons why this is a good spot for the Magic. Miami is 5-5 overall as an away favorite with a minus-4.7 ATS margin. Also, Miami has a 1-2-1 ATS record when laying 1-2.5 points and Orlando is 4-0 ATS when getting 1-2.5 points. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings with Orlando and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. I'm applying all of these ATS trends to my Heat-Magic moneyline handicap because the number is so short (+/- 1.5 points) that they can be used in a game BetMGM is essentially calling a coin flip.
BET MAGIC (+105) on the moneyline.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
There isn't much value in the line either way so I'll PASS on the AGAINST THE SPREAD wager in Heat-Magic. I'll waive the Magic +1.5 (-106) as insurance and just predict the straight-up upset.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings and Orlando has the highest percentage of Unders thus far with a 19-27-2 O/U record. Plus, the Magic have a 7-16-1 O/U record as a home team, including a 2-6-1 O/U record as a home dog.
The under very much correlates with the Magic winning outright as Miami's defense matches up well against Orlando's offense. The Magic are ranked 29th and 28th in field-goal percentage and 3-point %, going against a Heat team ranked seventh in opponent FG% and first in opponent 3-point percentage.
BET UNDER 207.5 (-110).
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