Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and best bets
The Miami Heat (35-19) visit the Atlanta Hawks (15-41) Thursday at the State Farm Arena as the NBA returns from the midseason All-Star break. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Heat-Hawks sports betting odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Heat at Hawks: Key Injuries
Heat
- C Meyers Leonard (ankle) out
- SG Tyler Herro (foot) out
Hawks
- SG Kevin Huerter (ankle) probable
- SF De'Andre Hunter (ankle) questionable
- SG DeAndre' Bembry (hand) available
- C Clint Capela (heel) out
- PF Skal Labissiere (knee) out
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Heat at Hawks: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access Paste BN Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Heat 114, Hawks 104
Moneyline (ML)
The Heat (-250) limped into the All-Star break as losers of four of their last five games. They went just 4-6 across their last 10 games before the break, and they're just 13-16 on the road for the season. Miami leads the season series 3-0, with victories coming by counts of 112-97, 106-97 and 135-121 in overtime.
Still, the moneyline draws a PASS without enough value on the visitors. A $10 bet on the Heat to win returns a profit of just $4. The Hawks (+200) offer an adequate profit potential to double your money, but they went 2-5 en route to the All-Star break, and they remain without several key players. The Hawks are just 9-17 at home for the season and inspire little confidence. Turn to the spread.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Back the HEAT (-6.5, -106) to win by at least 7 points. The Hawks are 25-30-1 against the spread overall but an impressive 15-10-1 on homecourt. The Heat are 29-23-2 ATS overall but just 12-16-1 on the road. Each of the Heat's last four victories were by margins of at least 7 points. Six of the Hawks' last seven losses were by margins greater than 7 points.
All three Miami wins in the head-to-head season came by more than 7 points, even the Dec. 10 overtime contest.
Over/Under(O/U)
Go with the UNDER 230.5 (-106) and a lower vig on your total bet in the Heat-Hawks. Both teams, like much of the NBA, have been off since Wednesday, Feb, 12, and come in well-rested and ready for a proper defensive effort. The Hawks are missing top scorers in Hunter and Bembry and the Heat are without Herro.
Esten's NBA betting record: 193-163
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