Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and best bets

The Detroit Tigers face the Cincinnati Reds Friday with a 6:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Great American Ball Park. We analyze the Tigers-Reds odds and lines, with MLB betting advice and tips around the matchup.

Tigers at Reds: Projected starting pitchers

LHP Matthew Boyd vs. RHP Sonny Gray

Boyd: 4.56 ERA in 185 1/3 IP, 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings

• The SO/9 figure - which came on increased velocity a year ago - was accompanied by a lot of fly balls and more than a fair share landing on the unplayable side of outfield fences. Boyd yielded 1.89 home runs per nine in 2019.
• Boyd owns a 5.60 road ERA over his career. He was rocked in his lone career game at Great American Ball Park in 2018 and hasn't fared well in parks considered to favor hitters.

Gray: 2.87 ERA in 175 1/3 IP

• Gray logged his lowest season ERA since 2015, but figure on a bit of regression after benefiting from a .255 opponent batting average on balls in play and a .190 batting average with runners in scoring position.
• The 30-year-old hurler often struggles the third time through a batting order. Look for the Cincinnati bullpen to be heavily involved in closing this one out.

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Tigers at Reds: Key injuries

Visit sportsdata.usatoday.com to track all MLB injuries leading up to game time.

Reds

• SS Freddy Galvis (shoulder) questionable
• RP Michael Lorenzen (forearm) questionable

Tigers

• OF JaCoby Jones (oblique) probable

Tigers at Reds: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access Paste BN Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML)

The Reds went 75-87 in 2019, but ran into some bad cluster luck and had a runs-versus-runs allowed profile that could've well yielded 84 wins or so. Cincinnati improved over the offseason and was a solid preseason win-total play at 31.5 in the 60-game season.

Figure the Reds as perhaps a .540 team with a solid starter (although maybe a bit overvalued) set to take the mound. The Tigers counter with Boyd, who figures to be overlooked, but this still works out to a lean on the home nine and one with a price to leverage. TAKE THE REDS (-167).

New to sports betting? A winning $10 wager on the Reds pays out a profit of $5.99.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

A CINCINNATI -1.5 (+120) play is worth tagging to the moneyline bet as a partial-unit undercard. After 2019, the Reds should be on the right side of the ledger with the run-differential gods.

Over/Under (O/U)

Friday evening in the Queen City sets up to be a warm but relatively dry night for midsummer in Cincy. The OVER 8.5 (-110) is the lean but not with much conviction.

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