Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and best bets

Geoff Clark | USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Washington Nationals (12-19) head to the City of Brotherly Love to start a 4-game series versus the Philadelphia Phillies (14-15) Monday. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Below, we analyze the Nationals-Phillies MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Nationals at Phillies: Projected starting pitchers

RHPErick Feddevs. RHPSpencer Howard

Fedde in 2020: 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 2.4 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 22 2/3 IP over 6 games (3 starts).

Last start: Loss in 5 IP with 7 H, 4 ER, 1 strikeout and 1 walk against the Phillies on Aug. 25.
Career vs. Phillies: 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 17 K and 13 BB in 26 1/3 IP over 6 games (5 starts).

Howard made his MLB debut earlier this season and has a 0-1 record with a 6.17 ERA, 8.5 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 11 2.3 IP (3 starts).

Last start: No-decision in 3 2/3 IP with 5 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB in a 3-2 loss at the Toronto Blue Jays on Aug. 20.

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Nationals at Phillies: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Nationals

2BStarlin Castro(wrist) out

Phillies

RPJose Alvarez(groin) out
RF Jay Bruce (quadriceps) out

Also see:BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball

Nationals at Phillies: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access Paste BN Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Phillies 7, Nationals 3

Moneyline (ML)

ThePHILLIES (-143)have won 5 of their last 6 games, which includes back-to-back road wins against the Nationals, Aug. 25-26. They lost a 12-10 slugfest against the Atlanta Braves Sunday.

The Nationals (+130) have the opposite results as Philadelphia recently, losing 5 of 6 games, which includes dropping a 3-game series to the lowly Boston Red Sox, 2-1, this past weekend.

What draws me toward Philadelphia is the market/pricing of the lines. Howard is the Phillies' top pitching prospect and has yet to make it past the 5th inning.

Also, the Phillies have the worst bullpen ERA in the majors and the Nationals are a much stronger road team (8-7 in away games, 4-12 in home games). But BetMGM knew this prior to making the line. They want bettors to chase the value and bet against the inexperienced Howard.

Let's eat the vig andTAKE PHILLIES (-143)on the moneyline. New to sports betting? A $143 wager on the Phillies (-143) returns a $100 profit if Philadelphia beats Washington.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Phillies' -1.5 (+135) bullpen is too bad to back them on a run line wager. There is definitely a scenario where the Nationals' above-average lineup chases Howard early and we get another slugfest.

For the record, that's not my handicap but it could happen. Either way,PASS ON THE RUN LINE.

Over/Under (O/U)

My feeling toward the total is aLEAN UNDER 10.5 (-110). Both lineups are in the top-10 in several categories and the pitching matchup sets up well for an Over.

I think we get aquality startout of Howard, the Phillies lineup gets out to an early lead and this game dies out. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 games in Philadelphia and it'll be 5 straight after today.

(I don't like playing totals so I'd only wager a fraction of the moneyline bet on the Under).

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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