Game 1: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and best bets

Geoff Clark | USA Today Sportsbookwire

TheDetroit Tigers(17-17) play theMinnesota Twins(22-16) in the first game of a doubleheader as part of a 5-game series beginning Friday. The first pitch of Game 1 is set for 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field. Below, we analyze the Tigers-Twins MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Both games of the doubleheader will be just seven innings.

Tigers at Twins: Projected starting pitchers

LHPMatthew Boydvs. RHPRandy Dobnak

Boyd: 1-4 with a 7.27 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 34 2/3 IP through 7 starts.

Last start: Win with 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6 K and 0 BB against the Twins Aug. 29.
Career vs. Twins: 8-6 with a 4.69 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 110 K and 39 BB in 113 1/3 IP over 20 starts.

Dobnak: 5-2 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over 34 2/3 IP through 7 starts.

Last start: Loss with 4 1/3 IP, 12 H, 6 ER, 1 K and 2 BB at the Tigers Aug. 29.
Career vs. Tigers: 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10 K and 2 BB in 11 1/3 IP over 3 games (2 starts).

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Tigers at Twins: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Tigers

OFJaCoby Jones(hand) out
3B Niko Goodrum (abdominal) questionable
3B Harold Castro (hamstring) out
OF Troy Strokes Jr. (hand) out

Twins

OFMax Kepler(groin) questionable
2BLuis Arraez(knee) questionable
CMitch Garver(ribs) out

Also see:BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball

Tigers at Twins: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access Paste BN Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Tigers 6, Twins 3

Moneyline (ML)

The Tigers (+140) had their 6-game winning streak broken Wednesday in an 8-5 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers. Detroit is a surprising .500 team currently and has a 3-game sweep over Minnesota in its only regular-season meeting with its AL Central rival.

The Twins (-154) won their previous two games against the Chicago White Sox entering Friday but that followed a 6-game losing skid, which included their 3-game sweep by Detroit.

Maybe I am the sucker here but there is just too much value in theTIGERS (+140)since they won in almost this exact same situation earlier this season. Boyd pitched against Dobnak in the first game of a doubleheader Aug. 29 and Detroit won 8-2.

The only difference being this game is in Minnesota and the Twins have a 14-4 record at home; however, the Tigers have a winning road record (8-7) and Boyd's numbers against the Twins lineup are much better than Dobnak against the Tigers.

GIMME TIGERS (+140). New to sports betting? A $50 bet on the Tigers (+140) pays a $70 profit if Detroit upsets Minnesota.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Twins -1.5 (+140) have the best run line record at home in MLB. Also, Minnesota was 26-12 straight up against Detroit in 2018-19. So, if we are wrong here about Detroit pulling off an upset it wouldn't be surprising, making the Tigers +1.5 (-167) too expensive given the circumstances.PASS ON THE RUN LINE.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS ON THE TOTAL. I don't generally like playing totals and I have zero feel for a 7-inning total. One game went Over and the other Under in the Tigers-Twins previous 7-inning doubleheader. IleanOver 7 (-110) because Detroit has a sneaky good lineup but the Twins have the highest percentage of Unders in the MLB.

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