Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and best bets

Geoff Clark | USA Today Sportsbookwire

TheCincinnati Reds(17-22) and Pittsburgh Pirates (12-25) playthe third game of a four-game series in the Steel CitySaturday at PNC Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Reds-Pirates MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Series:Tied 1-1.

Reds at Pirates: Projected starting pitchers

RHPAnthony DeSclafanivs. RHPTrevor Williams

DeSclafani: 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 21 IP over 5 starts.

Last start: Loss with 3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 3 K and 4 BB against the St. Louis Cardinals Aug. 31.
Career vs. Pirates: 2-7 with a 5.35 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 62 K and 24 BB in 72 1/3 IP over 14 starts.

Williams: 1-5 with a 5.50 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 34 1/3 IP over 7 starts.

Last start: No-decision with 4 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 6 K and 2 BB in a 6-5 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Aug. 31.
Career vs. Reds: 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 46 K and 13 BB in 63 1/3 IP over 13 games (10 starts).

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Reds at Pirates: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Reds

OFNick Senzel(undisclosed) out

Pirates

RP Keone Kela (forearm) out

Also see:BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball

Reds at Pirates: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access Paste BN Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Pirates 9, Reds 4

Moneyline (ML)

It could be just me but I think the betting public's perception of the Reds (-139) is off. Cincinnati came into the year as a sleeper to win the NL Central but has been disappointing given expectations (32.5 preseason wins total) and its roster. The market hasn't adjusted to the Reds' below-averageness.

The PIRATES (+125) haven't been a good baseball team but they weren't expected to be a good baseball team. Pittsburgh wasn't good last year (69-93) but was still 12-7 against Cincinnati.The 2020 season series of Reds-Pirates is tied 2-2.

DeSclafani has gotten shelled his past five starts against the Pirates (0-3 with an 8.61 ERA and 7 HR allowed) and Williams has been good against the Reds.TAKE THE PIRATES (+125).

New to sports betting? A $100 bet on the Pirates (+125) returns a $125 profit if Pittsburgh upsets Cincinnati.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Back to the market's read on the Reds (-1.5, +105), Cincinnati has a 14-25 RL record this season (3rd-worst in MLB). Pittsburgh is 21-16 on the RL and, again, has been a little feistier than it's given credit for.

I like them so much here,BET PIRATES -1.5 (+230)on the alternate run line.

New to sports betting? A $50 bet on the Pirates -1.5 (+230) alternate run line pays a $115 profit if Pittsburgh wins by two or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

We have enough action on this game and I don't like the Over/Under trends here so I am going to PASS on the total.

The Pirates have the 7th-highest Over percentage in the MLB (58%) but the Reds have a 7-13 O/U record on the road this season. The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings; however, the Under is 6-1 in DeSclafani's last seven road starts.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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