Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and best bets

Geoff Clark | USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Philadelphia Phillies (19-15) play the New York Mets (17-22) Saturday for the second game of a four-game series at Citi Field. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Phillies-Mets MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Series:Philadelphia leads 1-0.

Phillies at Mets: Projected starting pitchers

RHPSpencer Howardvs. RHPSeth Lugo

Howard: 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 through 16 2/3 IP over 4 starts.

Last start: Win with 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 K and 2 BB against the Washington Nationals Aug. 31.
Howard has made only four starts in his young career. One of them was against the Mets. He registered a no-decision with 3 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 K and 2 BB in a 6-5 Phillies win Aug. 14.

Lugo: 1-2 with a 2.12 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 17 IP over 11 games (2 starts).

Last start: No-decision with 3 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K and 2 BB in a 5-2 Mets loss at the New York Yankees Aug. 30.
Career vs. Phillies: 0-1 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 47 K and 13 BB in 34 2/3 IP over 17 games (3 starts).

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Phillies at Mets: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Phillies

RPAdam Morgan(shoulder) out
2BScott Kingery(back) out

Mets

2BEduardo Nunez(knee) out
RP Dellin Betances (back) out

Also see:BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball

Phillies at Mets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access Paste BN Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Mets 5, Phillies 3

Moneyline (ML)

The Phillies (+145) are one of MLB's hottest teams, going 9-1 over their last 10 games. Their 5-3 win against the Mets Friday was their fifth straight victory.The METS (-162) come into Saturday's tilt sizable favorites despite losing six of their previous eight games.

New York is a heavy favorite presumably based on Lugo working as anopenerand the Mets relying on the stronger part of their pitching staff in the bullpen. The Mets bullpen has a 4.32 ERA and hitters are averaging 38 points lower against their relievers.

Also, Howard has pitched only five innings in one of four starts this season and Philadelphia has the 2nd-highest bullpen ERA in MLB. I don't generally eat this muchchalk, but theMETS (-162)should cash easily.

New to sports betting? A $162 bet on the Mets (-162) will pay a $100 profit if New York beats Philadelphia straight up.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

As much as I'd love to chase value for the Mets -1.5 (+120), I am going toPASS ON THE RUN LINEin this spot. New York has a 6-12 RL record at home and a 5-9 RL record as a home favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

I lean UNDER 9 (-110) because Philadelphia's pitching staff is starting to pitch better recently. The Phillies have allowed three or fewer runs in six of their last 10 games and t he Under is 3-0-1 in the Phillies' last four road games.

It's only a lean since the Over is 5-2 in the last seven Phillies-Mets games in New York.

Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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