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UFC on ESPN+ 38: Claudio Silva vs. James Krause odds, picks and best bets

Joe Williams  |  Sportsbook Wire

In a welterweight bout, Claudio Silva and James Krause meet at UFC on ESPN+ 38 Saturday at the UFC's Fight Island facility in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

The southpaw Silva (14-1) hits the octagon standing three inches shorter than his counterpart, and he has a 2.5-inch reach disadvantage, too. In addition, Krause (27-9) has a 4.65 to 2.80 significant strikes-landed per minute advantage, although Silva is well ahead with a 51.87 to 48.66 significant strikes-accuracy percentage lead.

Silva will be trying to get Krause to the canvas early and often. He has a 3.32 to 1.05 takedown average, while he is well ahead with a 33.33 to 18.64 takedown-accuracy percentage advantage. Silva also sports a solid 2.11 to 0.96 submission average. Silva is 5-0 since landing at the UFC level, and he has won each of his past three via submission, including two victories in the first round.

Krause is looking to rebound after a split-decision loss to Trevin Giles at UFC 247. Two of his past three have finished inside the distance, with both wins by KO/TKO. He is 14-3 in his career via submission.

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Claudio Silva vs. James Krause betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access Paste BN Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:27 a.m. ET.

KRAUSE ( -152) is the more impressive physical specimen, and he'll be the winner as long as he can keep this fight upright. In fact, KRAUSE BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION ( +262) is an outstanding value.

I am just not feeling Silva (+125) in this fight, and I don't like his chances of getting Krause to the ground. That's his only avenue to a win in my eyes. It's also a good play to with NO ( -110): "WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?" Take UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS ( +107) for a solid value, too.

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