2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds, picks and predictions

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Phoenix Raceway for Sunday's 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500. The green flag is set to drop a little after 3:30 p.m. ET (on FOX). Below we analyze the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions.

NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson is the defending race winner in Phoenix, taking checkers Nov. 7, 2021, with an average speed of 100.348 mph.

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. steered his Toyota to Victory Lane in the March race in 2021. All three manufacturers have a win in the past four starts with Chevrolet owning two, although Ford has just one win in the previous seven Phoenix runs.

Penske Racing's Ryan Blaney is on the pole for Sunday's race, with JGR's Denny Hamlin on the outside of Row 1.

2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500: What you need to know

• Daytona 500 winner Austin Cindric topped the practice session Saturday with a speed of 131.090 mph, just edging out pole sitter Blaney, who was at 131.047 mph.
• The fastest Toyota in practice was Kurt Busch at 130.077 mph, 11th behind a slew of Chevys and Fords.
• Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron was the fastest Chevy in qualifying at 132.275 mph. He will start third next to Christopher Bell on Row 2.

Who is going to win the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500?

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:51 a.m. ET.

Larson (+425) is the chalk, and the defending champ with a win in November at this track, but there are other options on the board with much better value.

For instance, HAMLIN (+700) offers a 7-to-1 payoff. He has two career wins with 16 top-5 finishes in 33 Cup Series starts in Phoenix. He is second among all active drivers with a 10.55 Average-Finish Position (AFP), while posting 20 top-10 finishes and 854 career laps led.

If you're not quite sure about an outright win, there is still value playing HAMLIN TOP-3 FINISH (+210) for a chance to double up.

Hendrick's CHASE ELLIOTT (+900) has been a quick study at this Arizona track, posting a win and five top-5 finishes among his eight top-10 runs in 12 career Cup starts, leading 496 laps with a 10.67 AFP.

Penske's JOEY LOGANO (+900) has the same odds as Elliott, and he is a value play, too. Logano has won in Avondale twice, turning in a 13.31 AFP in his 26 career Cup starts with 717 laps led under his belt. Once thing to note, however, is he has four DNFs, which is rather high for Phoenix, so this pick comes with plenty of risk.