Men's NCAA Tournament betting guide: Hoops legend Sonny Vaccaro breaks it down
Sonny Vaccaro jokes his analysis of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament arrives by applying "logic with no logic."
If any man can be granted judgments based on feel, it’s Vaccaro.
The former Nike marketing agent signed Michael Jordan to his first sneaker deal.
Vaccaro, 82, also founded the ABCD Camp that brought attention to phenoms Kobe Bryant and LeBron James.
Vaccaro’s younger brother, Jimmy, is the senior linemaker for the sports betting network VSiN.
Breaking down the 68-team men’s bracket took Sonny Vaccaro only minutes.
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He likes returning finalist Gonzaga to break through and win its first NCAA title in New Orleans. Vaccaro sees Gonzaga defeating Tennessee, the SEC tournament champion and South bracket No. 3 seed. He also has Kentucky winning the East bracket and Auburn reaching the Final Four.
"Gonzaga’s the only choice," Vaccaro said. "It’s Mark Few’s time. He’s a hell of a coach. They’re home free in their bracket and they have the best player in America."
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Chet Holmgren is 'brilliant'
The last time I’ve heard Vaccaro gush as he does over Gonzaga’s 7-foot freshman center Chet Holmgren, he was speaking about high-school-aged LeBron James.
"This kid fits in with them perfectly," Vaccaro said of Holmgren, who’s averaging 14.2 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.6 blocked shots per game.
"With his size, shooting and demeanor, the way he flows with the game … he’s just brilliant" he said. "A 7-footer who shoots the three? Kevin Durant is the only comparison. I just adore the kid."
Baylor, the 2021 NCAA Champion that beat Gonzaga in last year’s final, is seeded No. 1 in the East, but Vaccaro sides with No. 2 Kentucky to emerge because of coach John Calipari's experience and the pedigree of its roster.
"No one thought Baylor was good enough to win it last year, and no one thinks they’re good enough this year," Vaccaro said. "Plus, the whole bracket is tough."
The East bracket presents the hardest road. UCLA sits as a No. 4 seed behind Big Ten Conference powerhouse Purdue. And, Saint Mary’s is a stellar No. 5 seed that took down Gonzaga this season.
"Kentucky is best fit to get through that gauntlet, considering the multi-zillion-dollar NBA players that Calipari usually gets," Vaccaro said. "Yes, I know Kentucky’s only won once with Johnny, but they’re always there, and I don’t see any team having the kids he has."
In the South, Vaccaro likes Tennessee to make a run. The Volunteers just defeated Kentucky in the SEC tournament.
Tennessee opens as 17.5-point favorites over No. 14 Longwood, and coach Rick Barnes confronts top-seeded Pac-12 champion Arizona and Big East champion, No. 2 Villanova in its bracket.
Vaccaro says Villanova's Jay Wright is one of the nation’s top-five coaches, and he calls Arizona’s first-year coach Tommy Lloyd the deserving coach of the year.
The South also includes three of the tournament-high nine teams chosen from the Big Ten, including No. 4 Illinois.
"The Pac-12 only sent three teams to the tournament, so Arizona had the easiest path to a No. 1 seed," Vaccaro said. "I believe that what Tennessee has done in the last eight to nine games by beating Kentucky and winning the conference was a test that they convincingly passed.
"I guess what I’m saying is that all those teams in there can beat Arizona, but I see Rick Barnes as one of those guys who has put in his time and has a special team to get through this."
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Vaccaro likes Auburn to cut down the nets in the Midwest bracket, where No. 1 Kansas, No. 3 Wisconsin and season-long top-25 entrant Providence reside.
"Kansas had some bad games this season, this was not Billy (Self’s) greatest job. Yes, they have good kids on that team and they are capable of winning it, but Auburn was probably the next-best team in the nation for much of the season," Vaccaro said. "And while I even think they’ll get to the final, I’ll stick with Tennessee."
Vaccaro’s preview leads us to a guide of the tournament’s first-round games with all point spreads set by Tipico Sportsbook:
West
No. 1 Gonzaga -25.5 vs. No. 16 Georgia State:
Never been a fan of taking on so many points, so it's likely best to sit this one out. But if Gonzaga is as good as Vaccaro says, a rout is more likely than a nail biter.
No. 8 Boise State +1.5 vs. No. 9 Memphis:
The Mountain West-champion Broncos will likely lead this game to the under.
No. 5 Connecticut -6.5 vs. No. 12 New Mexico State:
The top-25 Huskies will lean on their regular-season rigor and tradition to win this comfortably.
No. 4 Arkansas -6.5 vs. No. 13 Vermont:
The Razorbacks were a top-25 constant, and their toughness gained through the SEC schedule will carry them here.
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Rutgers-Notre Dame winner:
Four play-in games are necessary to fill the first round.
No. 3 Texas Tech -15.5 vs. No. 14 Montana State:
The Red Raiders expect to quickly extinguish their opponents’ thrill of making it to The Big Dance.
No. 10 Davidson +1.5 vs. No. 7 Michigan State:
Logic would steer a wager to coach Tom Izzo here, but these aren’t the Spartans we're used to.
No. 15 Cal State Fullerton +17.5 vs. No. 2 Duke:
I can’t pick against my alma mater, and Vaccaro, too, is down on the Blue Devils as they near the end of Coach K’s glorious reign.
"Mike (Krzyzewski) made that place a shrine, but I can’t grasp what happened to them in that final home against North Carolina, and I can’t grasp what happened to them against Virginia Tech Saturday," Vaccaro said. "In all my years, I’ve never seen a more astonishing turn of events than with Mike’s retirement, and this is the worst the ACC’s been in years."
East
No. 1 Baylor -20.5 vs. No. 16 Norfolk State:
The Bears will flex their legitimacy as the ominous bracket looms.
It is worth considering, since 2002, every national champion except UConn has been top-20 in offensive and defensive efficiency, according to analytics from KenPom.com.
The only teams to meet that metric this year are Baylor, Gonzaga, Arizona, Houston and UCLA.
No. 9 Marquette +2.5 vs. No. 8 North Carolina:
The Tar Heels closed the regular season at No. 25 before also losing to Virginia Tech. Now, they deal with tournament-strengthened Marquette coach Shaka Smart.
No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 Wyoming-Indiana winner:
Some see the top-20 Gaels as a potential force here. Others see them losing to the play-in winner.
No. 4 UCLA -15.5 vs. No. 13 Akron:
LeBron James isn’t walking into the building for his hometown school, so lay the points.
No. 11 Virginia Tech +1.5 vs. No. 6 Texas:
The line is telling you what to do. The Hokies won the ACC, peaking exactly when they need to.
No. 3 Purdue -16.5 vs. No. 14 Yale:
Of all the double-digit spreads, I like this one the most. The Boilermakers are a potential national champion and could make 19-11 Yale look like a junior college squad.
No. 10 San Francisco -1.5 vs. No. 7 Murray State:
The Racers occupied a top-25 spot for most of the season, but the Dons are gifted in the backcourt and taste the tournament for the first time since 1998.
No. 2 Kentucky -15.5 vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s:
Like Vaccaro said, too much “zillion-dollar” talent at Calipari’s disposal.
South
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Wright State-Bryant winner:
The Wildcats have the luxury to scout and then rout their opening foe.
No. 9 TCU +1.5 vs. No. 8 Seton Hall:
It’s always a shrewd play to take the nine seed in the tournament bracket here, especially when the expectation is the game will be this narrow.
No. 12 UAB +8.5 vs. No. 5 Houston:
The Cougars aspire to be in the Sweet 16 and beyond after a conference title season, but tournament nerves can jar.
No. 4 Illinois -8.5 vs. No. 13 Chattanooga:
The Fighting Illini showed moments of being stout enough for a Sweet 16 showing, but as Vaccaro noted, “Every Big Ten team has played horrible games versus average teams. Tell me one player who’s on Illinois?”
No. 11 Michigan -2.5 vs. No. 6 Colorado State:
The Rams have also occupied top-25 real estate, but with head coach Juwan Howard back, the Wolverines are the play.
No. 3 Tennessee -17.5 vs. No. 14 Longwood:
It’s so often about timing, and the defensive-minded Volunteers are in a comfortable zone as the one-and-done pressure arrives.
No. 10 Loyola Chicago -1.5 vs. No. 7 Ohio State:
Remember this one in the straight-up brackets, too. The ordinary nature of the Big Ten should be laid bare here by the Sister Jean-inspired Ramblers.
No. 2 Villanova -16.5 vs. No. 15 Delaware:
So many points. Go ahead and take the Fightin’ Blue Hens if you’d like, but I’d rather be on the side of a former national champion.
Midwest
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Texas Southern-Texas A&M Corpus Christi winner:
Play-in action commences Tuesday.
No. 8 San Diego State -2.5 vs. No. 9 Creighton:
The Aztecs are a marvelous defensive unit, who won three consecutive under bets in the Mountain West Conference tournament.
No. 5 Iowa -9.5 vs. No. 12 Richmond:
By winning the Atlantic 10 tournament, the Spiders spoiled the NCAA tourney hopes of many hoping to back-in. Iowa, riding the momentum of their Big Ten tournament title, will end Richmond’s spirited cause.
No. 13 South Dakota State +2.5 vs. No. 4 Providence:
Although Providence versus Iowa could be the best second-round game of the tournament, they must get past South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits are a 30-4 team and looking to upset Providence in a major way.
No. 11 Iowa State +5.5 vs. No. 6 LSU:
The Tigers had another coaching casualty before the postseason when Will Wade was fired for NCAA allegations of wrongdoing.
No. 3 Wisconsin -8.5 vs. No. 14 Colgate:
The Badgers shared the regular season Big Ten title and should be able to dominate Colgate.
No. 10 Miami (Fla.) +1.5 vs. No. 7 USC:
A top-25 team barely favored over an unranked opponent? Sign me up for the Hurricanes in this spot.
No. 2 Auburn -16.5 vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State:
The Tigers are a special unit after winning their first outright SEC title since 1999. They are seeking to appear in the Final Four for the second time in three seasons under Bruce Pearl.
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