Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics odds, picks and predictions

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Jazz at Celtics odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 114, Jazz 104

Money line

PASS even though the Celtics (-205) should win by margin since the Jazz (+165) are an NBA-worst 1-5 SU as an underdog with a minus-7.7 margin of victory.

Also, Boston is the most efficient squad versus teams with a top-10 net efficiency (plus-4.9 adjusted net rating), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

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Against the spread

BET the CELTICS -4.5 (-122) for 1 unit because they play much better against strong competition than the Jazz.

For instance, Boston is are 21-12-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record while Utah is 9-19-1 ATS versus winning teams and 4-8-1 ATS on the road in those spots.

Furthermore, the Celtics have the best adjusted net rating versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency with a plus-6.3 ATS margin, per CTG.

On top of that, Utah has a couple of weaknesses that Boston can attack. The Jazz can be careless with the rock - 20th in adjusted offensive turnover rate (TOV%) - and 19th in defensive field goal percentage versus mid-range attempts, per CTG.

Celtics All-Star wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown love to operate out of iso-sets and in the mid-range so I think either, or both of them, could be in for a big game. Plus Boston has a top-10 defensive TOV%.

Finally, the market is hammering the Under and the oddsmakers have lowered the total 7 points from the look-ahead. The market projecting a lower-scoring affair gives me more confidence in Boston since its defense is world-beaters.

BET the CELTICS -4.5 (-122).

Over/Under

PASS since I "lean" to the Under 215.5 (-110) but we'd be getting by far the worst of the number since this total was set at 223.5 on the look-ahead.

For what it's worth, the Jazz are 32-38-2 O/U and the Celtics are 33-38-2 O/U, but these teams have a combined 35-27 O/U versus teams with a winning record.

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