March Madness: Michigan vs. Villanova odds, picks and predictions

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Michigan vs. Villanova odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Villanova 71, Michigan 67

Money line

Peg Michigan as more of a lean here. Figuring UM as a 33% proposition is fair but it would take a tag of +210 or better to make for enough value.

PASS.

Against the spread

The Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.

Villanova's slow pace plays into Michigan's favor, and the Wolverines are a strong free-throw shooting team that has gotten more looks there of late. Figure on some beyond-the-arc regression working as a Michigan play and a Villanova fade.

BACK MICHIGAN +5.5 (-115).

Over/Under

The Over is 5-0 in UM's last five games as an underdog and it's 5-1 in its last six games against teams playing .600-or-better basketball.

The two-sided above-average offensive efficiency here wins out over the two-sided slow pace.

BACK THE OVER 135.5 (-110).

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