U.S.-England World Cup match likely to draw big bets, but Group B uncertainty has oddsmakers on pause
There are few certainties at any FIFA World Cup.
But for American oddsmakers, it’s a virtual guarantee that November's much-anticipated Group B showdown between the United States and England will draw the most domestic betting traffic of any match before the knockout round.
In addition to European Championship finalist England, and Iran, coach Gregg Berhalter’s Americans will take on the winner of a European qualifying bracket that sends either Wales, Scotland or Ukraine to the tournament.
Tipico Sportsbook rates England as an overwhelming favorite to grab one of two qualifying spots from Group B, with the U.S. marked as an even money proposition at +100. Iran is +400.
“Soccer is growing at a rapid pace in the U.S., and with fans who strictly follow the World Cup, we expect to see a 12% to 15% increase on soccer overall, with the majority of that getting placed on the tournament,” said Vincent Pepe, the soccer spokesman for Tipico Sportsbook, which unveiled its World Cup odds this week.
By now, Berhalter has already begun his homework on England. The group stage showdown is a mouthwatering Black Friday matchup Nov. 25.
The Iranians, who qualified comfortably through the Asian region, also continue to grow in strength.
The narratives surrounding Group B could vary drastically depending on the European playoffs.
If Ukraine makes it through a pair of difficult road qualifiers against Scotland and then Wales in June, it would surely enjoy a swath of global sentimental support.
The current Russian invasion of Ukraine is the primary reason why those playoff games were delayed — with still no clear schedule in place.
European Playoff mystery
The USMNT's first game in Qatar, Nov. 21, remains a mystery — even if Wales is considered by many to be the likeliest candidate to occupy the last spot.
Tipico and other gaming companies are waiting for the playoff results before offering a market to win Group B, rather than just advance.
“The uncertainty of the fourth team in Group B does affect the wagering on most U.S. markets due to the quality of teams that are in the playoff games,” Pepe said.
If either Wales or Scotland advance, it would set up a local rivalry clash with the English — arousing plenty of deep sporting emotions.
“Both are quality teams with young, hungry players," Pepe said. "On our end, it seems like people are holding off to place their bets until the final group is decided. England is the clear favorite to win this group, but second place will be a toss-up, as each team on their best day can compete with the others.”
Pepe predicts an influx of betting action will ultimately arrive, when the U.S. officially returns to the World Cup for the first time in eight years. The global anticipation will build toward the event — which was switched from its traditional summertime slot due to the Qatari heat — through most of the year.
With England favored (-161) to beat the Americans, the opening game against Wales, Scotland or Ukraine takes on paramount importance.
USMNT's renewed confidence
Berhalter’s squad evolved enough to not fear any international opponent. Many U.S. stars — like Christian Pulisic (Chelsea), Weston McKennie (Juventus) and Gio Reyna (Borussia Dortmund) — face the highest level of club competition on a weekly basis.
Soccer has also grown dramatically in the U.S. since the national team last appeared in the World Cup, with Jurgen Klinsmann leading the team to a knockout stage exit in 2014.
A strong start could see the team’s progress become the preeminent sports story during Thanksgiving week — even amid the NFL and college football games.
"We expect the money to start rolling in … (with) the majority (of bets) getting placed between the three-days-before to kickoff mark," Pepe said.
Tipico Sportsbook places Brazil as the World Cup favorite at +450, followed by England and France at +550. Next is Spain (+750), Argentina (9/1) and Germany (10/1) Belgium, Portugal and Netherlands all stand at 12/1.
The U.S. and Mexico are tied as the 17th choices at 100/1.
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