Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

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Celtics at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 111, Celtics 102

Money line

PASS with a heavy "lean" to the Warriors (-170) but will opt for Golden State's cheaper spread instead.

The Warriors are 39-10 straight up (SU) as home favorites with a plus-10.8 margin of victory and 16-6 SU on 2-3 days of rest with a plus-7.3 margin of victory. The Celtics (+135) are 10-17 SU as road underdogs and 14-8 SU on 2-3 days of rest.

Golden State has the best player in this series and generates cleaner looks on offense. Boston's lack of a true point guard and ball-handler leads to squandered possessions via turnovers or the Celtics settling for long, contested 2-pointers.

Warriors All-Star SF Andrew Wiggins is locking up Tatum. Wiggins has been the best 2-way player in the Finals. He grabbed a career-best 16 rebounds in Game 4 and is on Tatum like glue. Tatum is shooting just 33.3% from the field when guarded by Wiggins.

However, the Golden State (-170) is just a little out of my price range.

PASS.

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Against the spread

Buy a full-point and BET WARRIORS -3.5 (-122)ALTERNATE LINE because every point counts in this matchup. Golden State is only a plus-0.3 net rating in the Finals.

If this game is tight down the stretch, the Warriors have a significant edge and could end up winning Game 5 by margin.

Since the 1st round, the Celtics are 3-5 SU in "clutch" time with a minus-45.6 net rating, 28.8% effective field-goal rate (eFG%) and 0.76 assist-to-turnover rate (AST/TO).

The Warriors are 6-3 SU in the "clutch" with a plus-21.4 net rating, 59.5% eFG% and 2.13 AST/TO rate. "Clutch" is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play.

The bottom line is Golden State's offense is a lot crisper in winning time because of continuity and championship know-how.

Another wager to consider is WARRIORS (-122) TO WIN THE 3RD QUARTER.

One of the most consistent things in sports since the Warriors hired Steve Kerr as coach is Golden State smashing opponents in the 3rd quarter.

In these playoffs, the Warriors are 13-7 ATS in the 3rd quarter with a plus-21.02% return on investment (ROI) while the Celtics are 11-11 ATS with a minus-3.23% ROI. Golden State has a plus-12.3 margin of victory in the 3rd quarter of these Finals alone.

BET the WARRIORS -3.5 (-122) ALTERNATE LINE and TO WIN THE 3RD QUARTER (-122).

Over/Under

PASS.

This is a sharp total and my numbers align too closely with the market's projected score. It's hard to pick a side on the total because playoff series slow down as they continue, but both teams have a lot of firepower and chuck a lot of 3-pointers.

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