Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest: Can Joey Chestnut break his own record, again?

There’s the foregone conclusion of the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, and then there’s the mystery. 

With 14-time champion Joey Chestnut, 38, returning to participate in the Fourth of July event, betting sites are siding heavily with the man whose rapid-eating greatness seems to improve each year. 

Last year, Chestnut broke his own world record by consuming 76 hot dogs on the Coney Island, N.Y., stage where he’ll return as a prohibitive favorite. 

Sportsbooks, including Caesars Sportsbook, have established Chestnut as the staggering -3000 favorite to win — despite his foot injury — against an entire field that is posted as the +1100 second choice. 

Much of that has to do with Chestnut’s years-long reign and the fact that his victory last year came against a second-place finisher, Geoffrey Esper, who ate 26 fewer hot dogs. 

FanDuel Sportsbook lists Esper as the -140 second choice. 

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The day’s great intrigue centers on how many hot dogs Chestnut can consume. Caesars sets his over-under total at 74.5, listing the over as a -130 favorite and the under as a +100 underdog. 

Esper’s over-under at FanDuel is 52.5. 

The last man to defeat Chestnut was Matt Stonie in 2015.