Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Missouri odds, picks and predictions
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5) take on the Missouri Tigers (6-6) in the Gasparilla Bowl Friday. Kickoff at Tampa's Raymond James Stadium is at 6:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Wake Forest vs. Missouriodds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Wake Forest is 1-4 straight up (SU) and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last 5 games. Turnovers and dodgy pass defense have been big culprits in the slide. The Demon Deacons head into their bowl game ranked 13th in ACC pass defense, yielding 272.8 yards per contest.
Missouri's offense - 83rd in the nation at 25.3 points per game - has cranked out over 450 yards just once since Sept. 24. That was in the Tigers' last game on Nov. 25 when they defeated Arkansas 29-27 in part due to 242 yards in the air and 226 on the ground (468 total).
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Wake Forest vs. Missouri odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Wake Forest -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Missouri +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread (ATS): Wake Forest -2 (-110) | Missouri +2 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 58.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Wake Forest vs. Missouri picks and predictions
Prediction
Missouri 28, Wake Forest 24
Moneyline
If you put all the bowl games into 4 bins - quartiles for predictability/betting confidence based on trends, opt-outs and match-ups - this game between Wake Forest and Missouri would be in bin No. 4. November performances and opt-outs - hurting Mizzou more so than Wake - throw the sides here into partial-unit territory at best.
And a PASS at smartest. Missouri would be a slight lean at +120. Otherwise, move along.
Against the spread
Too much gray area in the matchups. Mizzou is slightly more likable, but Wake Forest has the edge in red-zone efficiency. PASS.
Over/Under
The Deacons rank 10th in the nation in passing (314.6 yards per game) and 91st in rushing (133.2). And there are some signs - and expected high winds - that Mizzou will be able to push Wake Forest into running the ball more than it wants.
And when Missouri has the ball, it's the 82nd ranked unit (370.8 yards per game) against a Deacons defense that does well to stop what the Tigers do best, which is run the ball.
This game could well land in 20-something-to-20-something territory. By a slim margin (consider a partial-unit play), BACK THE UNDER 58.5 (-108).
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