UConn at Providence odds, picks and predictions

The No. 5 UConn Huskies (14-1, 3-1 Big East) and Providence Friars (12-3, 4-0) tangle in a Big East contest Wednesday. Opening tip at Amica Mutual Pavilion will be at 8:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the UConn vs. Providenceodds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the Paste BN Sports Coaches Poll.

Connecticut is coming off its 1st loss of the season, an 83-73 setback at Xavier Saturday. The Musketeers outshot the Huskies by a wide margin for the game, but UConn did lead the contest for much of the 2nd half. The loss marked a 3rd straight in the against-the-spread (ATS) department: the Huskies had been 11-0-1 ATS until Dec. 20.

The Friars are 7-0 straight up and ATS since Dec. 3. All 7 covers have been by margins of 6 points or more. Providence is a strong rebounding team that frequently operates in the paint and gets to the free-throw line.

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UConn at Providence odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline: UConn -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Providence +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
• Against the spread (ATS): UConn -5.5 (-105) | Providence +5.5 (-115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 141.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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UConn at Providence picks and predictions

Prediction

UConn 72, Providence 69

Moneyline

PASS.

Providence would be a lean if their odds were +200 or better, but that kind of price shift seems highly unlikely.

Against the spread

The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Friars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against foes playing at least .600 ball on the road.

UConn's top-20 rates in effective field-goal percentage on both sides of the ball are still somewhat ripe for fading. Look for Providence to leverage its size and looks in the paint. Three-pointers will key whether or not the Huskies can run this one past a couple of possessions. They went 13 of 37 from distance against a Xavier team that has struggled mightily against the 3, but PU's perimeter defense has been above-average and trending in the right direction.

The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series.

BACK THE FRIARS +5.5 (-115)

Over/Under

A mid-paced game can be expected, and there's no reason to quibble with a total in the low-140s.

PASS.

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