NL Wild Card Series Game 1: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions
The Miami Marlins visit the Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday to open their NL Wild Card Series. First pitch between the NL East foes at Citizens Park is slated for 8:08 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins won 7-6
Miami rallied after playing sub-.400 baseball in July and August to go 17-10 in September. That was good enough to earn the 2nd NL Wild Card and get the Marlins in their 1st full-season playoffs since 2003.
The Phillies won 90 regular-season games (90-72), finishing 2nd in the NL East and 5 1/2 games ahead of the 84-77 Marlins. However, September was a slowdown for a club that went 49-26 over a 75-game stretch from June 3-Aug. 29. After Aug. 29, Philadelphia played just .533 ball (.16-14). Pitching was the culprit, with the Phils logging a 4.47 ERA over those last 30 games.
Marlins at Phillies projected starters
LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Luzardo went 10-9 with a 3.63 ERA in 32 regular-season starts. He registered a 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 178 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 2-1 road win vs. New York Mets Thursday
- 2023 road stats: 5-5, 4.48 ERA in 70 1/3 IP
- Career vs. Phillies: 3-0, 3.26 ERA in 30 1/3 IP
- Notched a 3.06 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 35 1/3 IP over his final 6 starts
- Owns a 5.91 ERA in 10 2/3 postseason IP over 2 starts and 1 relief appearance (2019-20)
Wheeler made 32 starts in the regular season. He authored a 13-6 record with a 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 192 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 3-2 home loss vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Thursday
- 2023 home stats: 5-2, 4.13 ERA in 89 1/3 IP
- Career vs. Marlins: 10-2, 2.48 ERA in 141 1/3 IP
- Is 1-3 with a 2.78 ERA across 35 2/3 IP across 6 starts in postseason play (2022)
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Marlins at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 8:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Marlins 3
Moneyline
The Marlins being over .500 with a scoring profile of 4.12 runs per game (RPG) while allowing 4.46 RPG makes them a fade in a vacuum. The Fish went 33-13 in 1-run games to tilt the scales back the other way, but they are perhaps at their core an under-.500 club.
If Miami sees the Philadelphia bunch as it played in the summer, then the Phillies are a bargain at -180, let alone where this one is priced.
The Phils hit lefties and righties alike. Miami, however, sports a more dangerous lineup vs. port-siders (.755 OPS). They own a .711 OPS against right-handers.
For the bullpens, put a green check in the Philadelphia column.
The Phils are 4-1 across their last 5 series openers and are 21-11 over their last 32 games at home.
PHILLIES (-165) is the value side here.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
With respect for the low total and the Marlins' penchant for playing tight ones. There is some value on a Phillies -1.5 (+130) wager for people who prefer the run line.
Over/Under
No O/U lean for the teams. The pitching here is solid, and the probability this one lands on 6, 7, of 8 runs is high. PASS.
IF LINED WITH FANDUEL AS AUDIBLE: FanDuel Sportsbook
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