UFC Fight Night 229: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green odds, picks and predictions

In a 5-round lightweight bout in the main event, Grant Dawson and Bobby Green meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 229 — also known as UFC Vegas 80 — at UFC Apex. Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's around the UFC Fight Night 229: Dawson vs. Green odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET with the main card following on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Records: Dawson (20-1-1) | Green (30-14-1)

Dawson takes the walk looking to avoid taking his first-ever loss at the UFC level. He is 8-0-1 in 9 bouts since arriving at the UFC, with his lone blemish a draw against Ricky Glenn in Oct. 2021. He has recorded 2 finishes, both via submission, in the past 3 fights, although his last outing resulted in a unanimous-decision win over Damir Ismagulov in July.

Green picked up a submission win over Tony Ferguson at UFC 291 last time out in late July. That followed up a no-contest against Jared Gordon, as he accidentally head-butted Gordon going in for a jab. The win over Ferguson was huge, snapping a 2-bout losing streak and the no-contest. He has won just 3 times in the past 8 bouts, losing twice via KO/TKO, and twice via unanimous decision.

Green has an overwhelming 6.14-to-2.99 significant strikes landed per minute, while Dawson is much more accurate at 63.90% to just 54.88% for the challenger. Dawson also dominates in takedowns, leading 3.70-to-1.21 in takedown average, and 1.48-to-0.32 in submission average.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 229: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.

• Fight result (2-way line): Dawson -490 (bet $490 to win $100) | Green +380 (bet $100 to win $380)
• Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over +170 | Under -220)
• Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -235)

UFC Fight Night 229: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Dawson (-490) will cost you nearly 5 times your potential return, and that's way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

Green (+380) has struggled with consistency, and Dawson is just such a versatile fighter, capable of taking him down a number of ways. I actually like Dawson's ability on the canvas, and see DAWSON BY SUBMISSION (+130) at plus-money for the method of victory as the much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Under 4.5 Rounds (-220) and No: Will the fight go the distance (-235) are each much too expensive.

Dawson has ended up getting the finish in 2 of his past 3 fights, and 5 of the past 8 outings. Green has ended up with finishes in 3 straight fights if you take out the no-contest against Gordon.

AVOID.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.