ALCS Game 1: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions
The Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros play Game 1 of the best-of-7 American League Championship Series Sunday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is scheduled for 8:16 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Rangers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Astros won 9-4
The Rangers hit the road, and they have been comfortable in such games in these playoffs. Texas has won 4 in a row away from home, sweeping the AL-Wild Card in St. Petersburg against the Tampa Bay Rays, while winning both games at Camden Yards against the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS. Overall, Texas has won all 5 playoff games to date, including 4 as an underdog.
There has been a lot of noise about time off for higher seeds in these MLB playoffs, but that didn't seem to bother the Astros. They took care of the Minnesota Twins in 4 games, including a pair of road wins in Games 3 and 4 to close things out. The Over is 3-1 in 4 playoff games for the Astros to-date.
Rangers at Astros projected starters
LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Montgomery made 32 starts in the regular season with the Cardinals and Rangers, going 10-11 with a 3.20 ERA. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 over 188 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 9 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 11-8 road win vs. the Baltimore Orioles in Game 2 of the ALDS last Sunday
- 2023 road splits: 3-6, 2.73 ERA (89 IP, 27 ER), 8 HR in 15 starts
- Making his 4th career postseason start and 5th overall appearance
Verlander was 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA across 27 regular-season starts with the Mets and Astros. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 162 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-4 home win vs. the Minnesota Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS
- 2023 home splits: 6-5, 3.23 ERA (86 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 12 HR in 14 starts in the regular season
- Making his 36th career postseason start and 37th overall appearance
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Rangers at Astros odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rangers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Astros -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-182) | Astros -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -102)
Rangers at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Rangers 3
Moneyline
The ASTROS (-142) are a decent play at home in this series opener, especially behind the experienced Verlander.
The Rangers (+120) have been on an amazing run, winning all 5 playoff games to date, including 4 in a row on the road. However, Houston has been the kryptonite to these super Rangers this season, winning 9 of 13 regular-season meetings. It will be close, though, as Texas is 3-3 in 6 visits to MMP.
Run line/Against the spread
The Rangers +1.5 (-182) are a little too expensive for my liking on the run line, if you want some insurance. My personal limit for a singular wager is -180, and this is just over the threshold.
Texas has been a great story, and I envision a tight, well-pitched game. But the Astros are a better bet on the money line.
AVOID the run line for now.
Over/Under
The UNDER 8.5 (-102) is a strong play in this series opener.
If you're letting regular-season trends steer the ship, then this looks like a bad play. The Over has cashed in the past 4 meetings between these Lone Star State rivals, while going 4-1 in the past 5 meetings in Houston.
However, Verlander was filthy against the Twins in Game 1, and the Under was 3-1 in his final 4 regular-season starts. As the intensity ratchets up, the runs seem to be fewer and further between when he is on the hill.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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