South Alabama at Troy odds, picks and predictions
The South Alabama Jaguars (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) and Troy Trojans (6-2, 3-1) meet Thursday at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Ala. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the South Alabama vs. Troy odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Jaguars posted a 33-7 win at Oklahoma State this season, and it has losses at home against Central Michigan and Louisiana despite being a double-digit favorite in both of those outings. This is a team you just never know who is going to show up, so it's apropos that South Alabama is 4-4 straight up (SU) and 3-5 against the spread (ATS). The Jags are a tough team to handicap.
USA starting QB Carter Bradley (knee) was knocked out of last Saturday's game due to a knee injury, and with a quick turnaround, he is likely going to be a game-time decision. He was able to go through a full practice Monday, and expressed optimism about playing, however.
The Trojans sit atop the Sun Belt's West Division, a game clear of 4 teams at 2-2 in the division who are giving chase, including the Jaguars. Troy has already beaten 2 of those teams, Arkansas State and Texas State, so Troy can really get a leg up in its pursuit of the SBC title game with a win.
Troy has won 5 straight games, and it has covered 4 in a row after opening the season 0-4 ATS. The Under is on a 6-0 run for the Trojans, thanks mainly due to its lockdown defense. Troy is allowed in just 10.5 points per game (PPG) in the 6-game Under run, including 3 games with 7 or fewer points allowed in the past 4 contests.
Troy has won 5 in a row in this series, including a 10-6 win on the road against South Alabama in 2022. USA hasn't won at Troy since a 19-8 victory in 2017.
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South Alabama at Troy odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): South Alabama +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Troy -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): South Alabama +4.5 (-115) | Troy -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
South Alabama at Troy picks and predictions
Prediction
Troy 26, South Alabama 17
Moneyline
Troy (-190) is a little on the pricey side, costing nearly 2 times your potential return.
South Alabama (+155) already faced an uphill battle, but with Carter a question mark, the Jaguars cannot be trusted for the upset, either.
AVOID.
Against the spread
TROY -4.5 (-105) is a solid play, and it would be a good play regardless of the health of Bradley for South Alabama +4.5 (-115).
The Trojans are hard to beat at home, as Troy is 3-1 SU in 4 tries, with the lone loss to an unbeaten James Madison. There is some risk, however, as Troy is just 1-3 ATS at Veterans Memorial Stadium, although it did cover handily in the most recent outing Oct. 7 at home against Ark State.
Over/Under
UNDER 44.5 (-110) is the lean, and the bottom might drop out if Bradley cannot go.
Troy is on a 6-0 Under run, limiting the opposition to just 63 total points in the past 6 games, or 10.5 PPG.
South Alabama has managed just a single Under result in the past 5 games, but that came in a 33-20 loss last time out against Louisiana on Saturday.
And remember, the last time these teams played in Mobile last season, Troy won 10-6 in a defensive battle.
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