TCU at Texas Tech odds, picks and predictions
The TCU Horned Frogs (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) and Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-5, 2-3) meet Thursday at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (FS1). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the TCU vs. Texas Tech odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Horned Frogs are a far cry from the team which went to the national title game last season. TCU has dropped 3 of the past 4 games, including a 41-3 setback at Kansas State last weekend as a 5.5-point underdog. Not only has TCU managed a 1-3 straight-up (SU) record in the past 4 outings, it is 1-3 against the spread (ATS), too.
TCU is good for 464.9 total yards per game, which ranks 14th in the nation, according to covers.com, while adding a respectable 29.4 points per game (PPG). Problems on defense have been the problem for the Frogs, allowing 24 or more points in 3 of the past 4 contests.
Texas Tech needs to win 3 of the final 4 games to attain bowl eligibility. It has 2 ranked teams on the road, Kansas and Texas, remaining, so it can ill afford a home loss against a .500 TCU side.
The Red Raiders have dropped consecutive games at BYU and home to Kansas State, failing to cover both outings are a 3-1 SU/ATS run. The Under is 5-2 in the past 7 games for the Red Raiders.
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TCU at Texas Tech odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): TCU +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Texas Tech -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): TCU +3 (-110) | Texas Tech -3 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 59.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
TCU at Texas Tech picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas Tech 29, TCU 23
Moneyline
TEXAS TECH (-150) is a decent play as a moderate favorite. Both of these teams are desperate for a win, trying to inch closer to bowl eligibility. It's an important game for those fortunes, and neither can afford a loss with a tough road to go down the stretch.
I am just not feeling TCU after a 38-point shellacking last weekend at Kansas State. It showed absolutely very little heart, and the Horned Frogs have dropped 2 in a row on the road, losing by 13 or more points in each. TCU's offense just hasn't been the same since starting QB Chandler Morris went down with a knee injury.
Against the spread
TEXAS TECH -3 (-110) is the lean, although like TCU +3 (-110), this team has had to adjust after having its starting signal caller knocked out. QB Tyler Shough (leg) might be able to return in about 3 weeks.
Right now, it's QB Behren Morton running the show, and he has completed 57.1% of his passes for 696 yards, 8 TD and 2 INT, while running for 2 scores. He isn't quite the dual threat Shough is, but the dropoff hasn't been as steep as their counterparts from Fort Worth.
Over/Under
UNDER 59.5 (-110) is easily the best play on the board.
TCU managed just a field goal on offense last week, and the Under is a healthy 6-1 across the past 7 games overall. The defense had been decent until the K-State game, allowing 27 or fewer points in 6 of the past 7 outings.
Texas Tech has seen the total go low in 5 of the previous 7 outings. The defense isn't as dominant as TCU's, but it has allowed 28 or fewer points in 5 of the past 7. And the offense hasn't been as strong since Shough went down, too.
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