Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and predictions

Johnny Parlay | Staff Writer

The Miami Dolphins (6-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) meet Sunday in Frankfurt, Germany for a marquee Week 9 matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network). We're just not sure if Taylor Swift will be on hand to cheer on her beau, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, when the AFC contenders face off.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Dolphins vs. Chiefs, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Dolphins beat the New England Patriots 31-17 in Week 8, bouncing back from a 31-17 Week 7 Sunday night loss at the Philadelphia Eagles (6-1 at the time, now 7-1). The Dolphins covered as 7.5-point favorites vs. the Patriots (2-6) as QB Tua Tagovailoa (324 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) improved to 6-0 vs. coach Bill Belichick.

Kansas City suffered a stunning 24-9 loss at the Denver Broncos (3-5) last Sunday. The Chiefs were 7-point favorites and had won 16 in a row vs. the rival Broncos, while it was QB Patrick Mahomes' 1st loss to Denver in 13 starts.

Kansas City had 5 turnovers to Denver's 1, Mahomes threw for 240 yards with no TDs and 2 picks, and the Chiefs ground game lost 3 fumbles and only had 62 yards compared to Denver's 153 rushing yards.

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Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:05 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Chiefs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +1.5 (-110) | Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Dolphins vs. Chiefs key injuries

Dolphins

OL Terron Armstead (knee) questionable
WR Braxton Berrios (hamstring) questionable
CB Xavien Howard (groin) questionable
OL Robert Hunt (hamstring) out
S Brandon Jones (concussion) out
TE Durham Smythe (ankle) questionable
C Connor Williams (groin) questionable

Chiefs

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) out
LB Willie Gay (back) questionable

Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks and predictions

Prediction

Dolphins 31, Chiefs 30

Moneyline

BET MIAMI (+105).

While some will be focused on if Taylor Swift is in the crowd or not, the story on the field will be WR Tyreek Hill facing Kansas City for the 1st time since his trade to Miami before the 2022 season.

The 6-time Pro Bowler, who won a Super Bowl with the Chiefs, leads the NFL in receiving yards (1,014) and TD catches (8). The 8-year veteran is on pace to become the league's 1st wide receiver to reach 2,000 receiving yards in a season.

These are 2 very good AFC teams, both in 1st place of their respective divisions. The key matchup will be the Dolphins offense vs. the Chiefs defense.

Miami leads the league in scoring (33.9 points per game), offensive yards per game (453.2), passing (301.5 YPG) and rushing (151.8 YPG).

Kansas City's defense ranks 2nd in least points allowed (16.1 PPG), 4th in least yards allowed (287.8 YPG) and 2nd against the pass (176.1 YPG), but 18th vs. the run (111.6 YPG).

Miami's defense received a boost last Sunday when CB Jalen Ramsey made his season debut after offseason knee surgery. The 6-time Pro Bowler had a 49-yard interception return, thwarting a potential tying drive in the 1st half with a pick inside the Patriots' red zone.

The final reason for backing Miami: The Dolphins have been in Frankfurt since Tuesday, while the Chiefs arrived Friday morning.

This will play a huge role as players had to get accustomed to the time change. MIAMI (+105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

Against the spread

If you prefer to take the points with Miami +1.5 (-110) instead of betting the straight-up win, feel free.

It's only a slight difference, but the ML is plus-money.

A $100 bet on the Miami ML (+105) would profit $105, while it's a $110 bet to win $100 on the Miami spread of +1.5 (-110).

The 1½ times for a usual $100 bettor makes it a $150 bet on the Miami ML to profit $157.50, or $165 on the Miami spread to bag $150.

Over/Under

BET OVER 50.5 (-110) TO WIN A HALF-UNIT.

Miami's offensive numbers were mentioned above in the ML section.

Kansas City can move the ball, too, averaging 381.4 YPG (ranking 4th), 276.2 passing YPG (3rd) and 105.1 rushing YPG (21st), while Miami's defense allows 329.4 YPG (15th), 221.5 passing YPG (16th) and 107.9 rushing YPG (16th).

Kansas City ranks 12th in scoring (23.4 PPG), while Miami is 25th in points allowed (25.5).

I'm a little concerned since the first 3 games in this season's International Series cashed Under tickets, but this matchup features 2 of the top 4 offensive teams when it comes to yards per game.

Plus, the Chiefs are 2-6 O/U on the season, including 4 Unders in a row.

OVER 50.5 (-110) is the lean.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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