Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons odds, picks and predictions

John Holler | Staff Writer

The Minnesota Vikings (4-4) are riding a 3-game winning streak, but are starting over after losing quarterback Kirk Cousins for the season with a torn Achilles. The first step in that journey begins when the Vikings travel to play the Atlanta Falcons (4-4) at 1 p.m. ET Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in a game broadcast on FOX. Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Vikings vs. Falcons odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Vikings have been one of the hottest teams in the league, winning 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. The defense has been playing much better, but an offense without Cousins and superstar Justin Jefferson has crippled Minnesota's offense and made life difficult for a team that enters play as the No. 7 seed in the NFC and the 3rd Wild Card team.

The Falcons started 2-0, but have gone 2-4 since. They're coming off a 28-23 loss to Tennessee and ended up benching QB Desmond Ridder and will start journeyman Taylor Heinicke this week. The Falcons haven't been getting the most out of high draft picks Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson, which may well have contributed to their recent struggles.

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Vikings at Falcons odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:15 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Vikings +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Falcons -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Vikings +3.5 (-105) | Falcons -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 37.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Vikings at Falcons key injuries

Vikings

QB Kirk Cousins (Achilles) out
WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring) out
DT Dean Lowry (groin) out

Falcons

S DeMarco Hellams (shoulder) out
WR Drake London (groin) out

Vikings at Falcons picks and predictions

Prediction

Falcons 19, Vikings 17

Moneyline

PASS

All of the Falcons wins have all come against teams with losing records, so there isn't a lot of confidence making a bet that requires twice the investment that you would get in return.

Against the spread

TAKE VIKINGS +3.5 (-105)

The focus has been on the devastating losses the Vikings offense has suffered, but Minnesota's defense has flourished under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores. The Vikings have allowed just 40 points in their last 3 games and have been blitzing as much as any team in the league.

The Falcons' last 3 wins have come by 1, 2 and 3 points. They haven't blown out anyone since Week 1. This spread was at 4.5 points Thursday, but it dropped a point because there is no evidence that the Falcons have the firepower or the defense to blow out an opponent.

Atlanta has all the advantages to win, but hasn't proven to be able to cover a spread of more than a field goal because it hasn't happened since Week 1.

Over/Under

TAKE UNDER 37.5 (-110)

This is a difficult number because it is so low - you rarely see O/U numbers much smaller than this.

That being said, the Vikings are starting 5th-round rookie Jaren Hall, while the Falcons will giving Heinicke his first start without his top receiver (London).

The Falcons have scored 16 or fewer points in 4 of their last 6 games and are averaging 15 in that span. The Vikings defense has allowed just 13 points a game over the last 3, including 17 to the potent 49ers offense in an upset win.

Ideally, Atlanta will want to run early and often, and the Vikings pass offense is hamstrung. That lends itself to time-consuming drives, field position and field goals. It may take a defensive or special teams touchdown to surpass this O/U number.

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