NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 9

John Holler | Staff Writer

The NFL is going to Germany this week with one of the most anticipated games of the season: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins. There's no way we could have a prop bet that doesn't include that game.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 9 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

For this week, the prop bets run all day Sunday -- from the morning game in Frankfurt to the Sunday night game in Cincinnati.

The prop bets include 2 running backs getting past Over/Under numbers too low, a wide receiver stepping into the NFL record books, a young QB with a number a little too daunting for his opponent and a revenge play for the ages for a star playing his former team for the 1st time.

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NFL Week 9 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 3:01 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Bills RB James Cook OVER 47.5 rushing yards (-115)

- At Bengals, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Everyone is expecting a shootout between Buffalo QB Josh Allen and Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow, but the running backs may play as big a role as anyone in this game. Cook has consistently had 13-14 carries a game over the last month and he has topped this number in each of his last 3 games and 5 of his last 7.

Just as telling is that the Bengals run defense has been awful. Cincinnati allows 138.6 rushing yards per game and opposing runners average 5.0 yards a carry.

If Cook's carry numbers remain consistent and/or the Bengals give him 5 yards a carry, it will be difficult not to top this number.

Commanders QB Sam Howell UNDER 248.5 passing yards (-115)

- At Patriots, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Howell has been inconsistent -- as have the rest of the Commanders -- but a couple of things play against his passing this number.

His lowest passing days have come against bad teams -- and the Patriots qualify by that standard. When a team faces an opponent that struggles, the run game gets more emphasis and the game shortens up.

The other issue is that the Patriots have struggled, but their pass defense remains strong. They've allowed 223.2 passing yards a game, but the QBs they have faced include Jalen Hurts (Philly), Tua Tagovailoa (Miami), Dak Prescott (Dallas) and Josh Allen (Buffalo). If those guys average below this number, it doesn't bode well for Howell.

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (-115)

- Face Chiefs at Frankfurt, Germany, 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network)

Hill has scored a TD in 7 of 8 games, despite defenses doing everything they can to limit his big-play ability. In the Dolphins offense, they draw up plans to get Hill and space and wait the 1-on-1 opportunities over the top.

What makes this so intriguing is that Hill is facing coach Andy Reid and his former teammates for the 1st time since he was traded to the Dolphins before the 2022 season.

Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown OVER 83.5 receiving yards (-115)

- Host Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Brown has been on as dominant a streak as any receiver in NFL history. Last week he set the record for most consecutive games (6) with 125 or more receiving yards.

He now faces a Cowboys team he torched for 103 yards in their last meeting (Dec. 24, 2022). The Cowboys are going to give more attention to Brown, but, at their core, the Cowboys play press-man defense and rarely change what they do to tailor it to an opponent.

The Philadelphia defense is likely going to make Dallas one-dimensional offensively because it's allowing a league-best 65.5 rushing YPG. As such, the Cowboys are going to throw a lot and, if successful, will force the Eagles to throw as well.

Brown's streak has to end sometime. It just doesn't look like it will be this week.

Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker OVER 52.5 rushing yards (-115)

- At Ravens, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Walker has been disrespected for his rushing ability all season when it comes to his Over/Under. He has topped this number in each of the last 5 games and 6 of 7 games this season.

The Ravens have a solid run defense, but the Seahawks don't stop running based on opponents. Walker has rushed 17 or more times in 5 of the last 6 games and he continues to get fed the ball even when it isn't effective.

If he gets anywhere close to 17 carries, he should sail past this number.

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