UFC Fight Night 231: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby odds, picks and predictions

In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Gabriel Bonfim and Nicolas Dalby meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 231 at Ginasio Do Ibirapuera in São Paulo, Brazil. Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's around the UFC Fight Night 231: Bonfim vs. Dalby odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET with the main card following on ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

Records: Bonfim (15-0-0) | Dalby (22-4-1)

Bonfim puts his perfect record as a professional on the line. He is 15-0-0 in his career, including 2 victories in Round 1 via submission since joining the UFC, and he also submitted Trey Waters in Round 1 in Dana White's Contender Series: Season 6, Week 7.

The victories for "Marretinha" haven't been cheapies, either, as he topped veteran Trevin Giles in 73 seconds at UFC 291.

Dalby, a.k.a. the "Danish Dynamite", has picked up 3 straight wins via decision since a unanimous-decision loss to Tim Means in June 2021. He has ended up going the distance in 5 straight fights, and 6 times in 7 fights with 1 no contest against Jesse Ronson.

Bonfim holds a 6.08-to-3.93 significant strikes landed per minute, although the Danish fighter is way more accurate at 50.88% to just 37.62% for the Brazilian.

Bonfim has seen all 15 of his fights as a professional finish inside the distance, which is the complete opposite of Dalby. The latter has never had a stoppage, sans the no contest, at the UFC level.

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UFC Fight Night 231: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.

• Fight result (2-way line): Bonfim -620 (bet $620 to win $100) | Dalby +460 (bet $100 to win $460)
• Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -106 | Under -120)
• Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +215 | No -290)

UFC Fight Night 231:Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Bonfim (-620) will cost you more than 6 times your potential return, and that's way too much risk for not enough reward.

Instead, focus on method of victory. The Brazilian is an absolute beast on the mat, and he'll try to get this fight to the mat as quickly as possible. BONFIM BY SUBMISSION (+125) at plus-money is too big of a value to pass up.

Dalby hasn't been submitted in his career, but he hasn't won via the method since a rear-naked choke/technical submission at Cage Warriors 96 in Sept. 1, 2018, against Roberto Allegretti. Dalby hasn't had any finishes since March 2019.

It's also worth taking a shot on 2 "Method & Round" props, too. Go with BONFIM SUBMISSION & ROUND 2 (+900) and BONFIM SUBMISSION & ROUND 3 (+1700). If Bonfim is able to win this fight via submission in Round 2 or 3, you'll obviously lose 1 end, but you'll be very far ahead still.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-106) is also the play. Dalby has never had a stoppage at the UFC level, also Bonfim hasn't been out of Round 1 since July 18, 2021.

As far as No: Will the fight go the distance? (-290), you cannot risk nearly 3 times your potential return. That's way too expensive.

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