Washington Commanders at New England Patriots odds, picks and predictions

Drew Phelps | Staff Writer

The Washington Commanders (3-5) face the New England Patriots (2-6) Sunday in Week 9 NFL action. Kickoff at Gillette Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Commanders vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Commanders fell to the Philadelphia Eagles 38-31 in Week 8. Washington started the season 2-0 but has lost 5 of its last 6 games. QB Sam Howell had his best statistical game of the season, throwing for 397 yards and 4 touchdowns but also a costly 4th-quarter interception. He connected with WR Jahan Dotson for 108 yards on 8 catches and a touchdown grab.

New England dropped its 4th game in its last 5 to the Dolphins in Week 8, 31-17. Its defense allowed Miami to rack up 390 yards of total offense. QB Mac Jones only managed 161 passing yards but did throw 2 touchdown passes. No running back, wide receiver, or tight end produced more than 39 yards of offense.

This will be the 1st time Washington has faced the Patriots without Tom Brady since Oct. 1996. New England dominated its last meeting with the Commanders, 33-7 on Oct. 6, 2019. It covered as a 15.5-point road favorite, and the Under (42) hit.

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Commanders at Patriots odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:47 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Commanders +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Patriots -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Commanders +2.5 (-105) | Patriots -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 40.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Commanders at Patriots key injuries

Commanders

S Percy Butler (calf) questionable
WR Curtis Samuel (toe) out
C Ricky Stromberg (knee) out

Patriots

DT Christian Barmore (knee) questionable
DT Davon Godchaux (illness) questionable
LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (hamstring) questionable
T Vederian Lowe (ankle) questionable
T Trent Brown (ankle, knee) questionable
CB Jonathan Jones (knee) questionable
WR DeVante Parker (concussion) out
WR Tyquan Thornton (foot) questionable
DE Deatrich Wise (shoulder) questionable

Commanders at Patriots picks and predictions

Prediction

Commanders 27, Patriots 17

Moneyline

BET COMMANDERS (+120).

Despite the Commanders selling off 2 big pieces of their defense this week, they take care of business in Foxboro on Sunday. They have shown the ability to move the ball on offense, while the Patriots have scored over 20 points just once all season.

Against the spread

BET COMMANDERS +2.5 (-105).

I obviously have the Commanders winning the game outright as underdogs, so I will definitely take them with the points as well.

I would take Howell over Jones any day of the week. He has a better arm and more raw athletic ability. Washington also has better offensive weapons than the Patriots.

Over/Under

BET OVER 40.5 (-110).

Both of these defenses struggle to stop teams from scoring points. Washington allows 28.5 points per game (2nd-most in NFL) and the Patriots allow 26.0 (7th-most). That's a lot of points between 2 teams.

The Commanders have been Over in 3 of their last 5, and New England has been Over in back-to-back games.

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