Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and predictions

Kevin Erickson | Staff Writer

The Miami Heat (3-4) and Memphis Grizzlies (1-6) meet Wednesday at the FedEx Forum in Memphis. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Heat vs. Grizzlies odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; teams split 1-1 last season

The Heat have dropped 5 of the previous 7 meetings against the Grizzlies, but that was also against a good Memphis team which included suspended star Ja Morant. The Grizz is also 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 7 meetings, but that can mostly be disregarded this season.

Miami has picked up the pace with a pair of wins against the Los Angeles Lakers and Washington Wizards entering play, although the Heat is a dismal 1-6 ATS in 7 games this season, including non-covers in 5 in a row. The Under and Over has alternated in all 7 games, with an Under last time out against the Lakers.

Memphis earned a 112-100 win in Portland last time out on Sunday, halting a 6-game losing streak to begin the season. The cover as 3.5-point favorites also ended an 0-4 ATS skid, while the Under (219) put to bed a 3-0 run to the Over.

Heat at Grizzlies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:12 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Grizzlies +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -1.5 (-110) | Grizzlies +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 218.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Heat at Grizzlies key injuries

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (knee) probable
F Jamal Cain (stomach) out
G R.J. Hampton (illness) questionable
F Nikola Jovic (illness) out
F Caleb Martin (knee) out

Grizzlies

G John Konchar (hip) doubtful
G Derrick Rose (knee) out
F Xavier Tillman (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Heat at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 118, Grizzlies 109

Moneyline

The Heat (-120) is a little pricey when compared to the spread. Miami simply needs to win by a bucket to cover, and it's less juice.

PASS, and look to the ATS instead.

Against the spread

The HEAT -1.5 (-110) aren't a slam-dunk play, even against the struggling Grizzlies +1.5 (-110), as Miami has failed to cover in 5 in a row. However, the feeling here is that the Heat is just an overall basketball team, and they're going to win, and a meager 2 points isn't a big spread.

Yes, the Heat is just 1-2 ATS on the road in 3 tries, and Miami has failed to cover all 4 times as a favorite this season. But Memphis also arrives with a 1-4 ATS mark in 5 games, and 2-5 ATS in 7 outings overall, so it hasn't exactly been a cover king.

Over/Under

OVER 218.5 (-115) is worth a look.

The total has gone high in 3 of the past 4 games for the Grizz, although one of the games was an OT loss in Portland on Friday. The Over cashed in the most recent home game Oct. 30 against Dallas, too.

For Miami, the Under and Over has alternated in all 7 games, and the pattern calls for an Over here, although it's coincidence rather than fact if it hits. Still, the Over is 2-1 on the road for Miami this season, and the D has allowed 119 or more points in those 2 Over results.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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