North Texas at SMU odds, picks and predictions
The North Texas Mean Green (3-6, 1-4 American Athletic) and SMU Mustangs (7-2, 5-0) meet Friday. Kickoff at Gerald J. Ford Stadium is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the North Texas vs. SMU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
North Texas lost its 3rd straight game Saturday, pushing as an 8-point home underdog in a 37-29 defeat to UTSA as the Under (69.5) hit. Each of the team's 5 losses has been by 1 possession (8 points or fewer). The Mean Green could stand to be a bit more surly on defense — UNT has allowed 468.3 yards per game (132nd in FBS).
Southern Methodist failed to cover the spread as a 13-point favorite in a 36-31 win at Rice on Saturday as the Over (59) cashed. The Mustangs, who lead the AAC in points for (40.0 per game) and against (15.9), have won 5 straight — their only losses were at Oklahoma on Sept. 9 and at TCU on Sept. 23.
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North Texas at SMU odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: North Texas +575 (bet $100 to win $575) | SMU -900 (bet $900 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): North Texas +17 (-110) | SMU -17 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 67.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
North Texas at SMU picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 38, North Texas 21
Moneyline
Southern Methodist figures to dominate. No leverage with these tags: PASS.
Against the spread
Peg the Mustangs as much the better team just about all the way around, but the SMU offense may be a tad overrated. Will the Mustangs perhaps either peek ahead at their Nov. 18 game against Memphis, or keep some offensive or defensive looks in the quiver until that meeting?
Figure SMU by 14 to 20, with no leverage in dancing in around this spread. PASS.
Over/Under
The total has gone Under in 4 of North Texas' last 5 games.
The UNT defense has allowed 39-plus points to the likes of Florida International, Louisiana Tech and Temple — and those gridiron squads are not exactly known for scoring a ton of points. Success rates allowed against the run, against the pass, in early-down situations and in the red zone are atrocious. The Mean Green have also allowed much open-green space on more plays than just about anybody — they have struggled mightily in preventing big plays.
Mix in a 40-point SMU team in a game with 2 teams that have high pace numbers, and you get a big total. But there should be some room to cash on a figure sliding short of this lofty sum.
Southern Methodist has some recent scores (55 points against Temple, 69 vs. Tulsa) that were impacted by special-teams scores, short-field touchdowns, and garbage-time TDs. Add in SMU having all sorts of trouble stopping Rice last week, and it's likely we get a Mustangs team ready to take a 2-to-3-score lead and defend a bit more.
When these teams met last year Sept. 3, SMU won 48-10 and the Under (67) cashed. That side of the ledger is 2-0 over the last 2 autumns.
BACK THE UNDER 67.5 (-115).
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