Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and predictions

Johnny Parlay | Staff Writer

The Denver Broncos (3-5) and Buffalo Bills (5-4) wrap up the Week 10 slate on Monday Night Football. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Broncos vs. Bills odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Broncos are coming off a bye after scoring one of the more impressive upsets of the NFL season with a 24-9 home victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8. As a 7-point underdog, Denver beat K.C. for the 1st time since 2015, snapping a 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs.

The Bills lost as 1.5-point road dogs 24-18 at the Cincinnati Bengals in the Week 9 Sunday night game. Buffalo has alternated wins and losses over the last 6 games and at 5-4, the Bills are 1 game behind the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East, a division Buffalo has won the past 3 seasons.

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Broncos at Bills odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:57 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Broncos +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Bills -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Broncos +7 (-110) | Bills -7 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Broncos at Bills key injuries

Broncos

None

Bills

CB Christian Benford (hamstring) out
LB Terrel Bernard (concussion) questionable
S Micah Hyde (neck) out

Broncos at Bills picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 24, Broncos 17

Moneyline

Buffalo (-350) hasn't lost 2 games in a row since Weeks 9 and 10 last season. It won't happen here despite Denver being well-rested.

Buffalo is 4-0 at home this season. Denver is 1-2 on the road -- the win (31-28) coming against a bad Chicago Bears team in Week 4.

The Bills can't be pleased with their loss in Cincinnati. You can bet they've been focused more than usual leading into this Monday night home game.

However, risking 3.5 times your potential profit is not a good strategy. PASS and focus on the better options below.

Against the spread

A very slight LEAN is with BUFFALO -7 (-110), but my projection has this number right where it should be.

I'd like the spread more if it drops to 6.5 or lower, but I don't see that happening, and I definitely wouldn't touch it if it climbs to 7.5 or higher.

Buffalo is only 3-6-1 ATS, including 2-2 ATS at home. Denver is a bit worse ATS at 2-5-1 with an 0-2-1 road ATS.

The advice here is to AVOID, but if you must, lay the 7 points with the Bills.

Over/Under

UNDER 47.5 (-110) is my STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

If you haven't heard, the Under is 10-1 in Monday night games this season, including cashes in the last 8. Only the Week 2 Pittsburgh Steelers' 26-22 home victory vs. the Cleveland Browns was an Over (39.5) winner.

Denver averages 21.5 points per game. Buffalo scores 26.7 PPG, but it has only averaged 20.2 PPG in the last 5.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense yields 17.8 PPG, which ranked 5th entering Week 10. The Broncos give up 28.2 PPG, but the average is 15.0 PPG in their last 3.

Sure, streaks eventually end -- just like the Chiefs' 16-victory run vs. the Broncos -- but I'm going to ride this MNF Under train until it does.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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