NFL Week 11 parlay: Let's make some money

Kevin Erickson | Staff Writer

Three of 4 of this column's selections won last week, but that won't cash a parlay ticket. We'll try and do better in Week 11.

The Pittsburgh Steelers picked up a 23-19 win and cover as 3-point favorites in the early window -- they closed as 3.5-point favorites. We had the Dallas Cowboys (-16.5) in a 49-17 rout of the visiting New York Giants -- Dallas closed as a 17.5-point fav.

But we lost on the Jacksonville Jaguars ML (+138), who were boat-raced by the visiting San Francisco 49ers 34-3, which killed our parlay before it ever got to the late window Sunday to see the Cowboys win.

We were correct on the bonus/add-in game with the Las Vegas Raiders ML (-110) beating the New York Jets 16-12 on Sunday Night Football.

Now, it's time to focus on the new week. After looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Week 11 odds, here is a "Let's make some money" NFL parlay bet to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL Week 11: Let's make some money parlay

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1:43 a.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Leg 1: CHARGERS -3 (-110) at Packers – 1 p.m. (FOX)

It's now or never for the Chargers (4-5) as they head east looking to rebound from a debilitating home loss to another NFC North team. The Bolts put up 38 points vs. the Detroit Lions (7-2) but ended up on the short end in a 3-point loss.

The Chargers actually had 24 first downs to the Lions' 23, while converting a solid 50.0% on 3rd-down plays (7 of 14). Los Angeles was even 3 for 3 in 4th-down efficiency, but it still lost. The run defense was a big issue, allowing 200 yards on the ground, while managing just 98 yards itself.

QB Justin Herbert was able to hook up with WR Keenan Allen 11 times for 175 yards and 2 TDs, but the Packers (3-6) are pretty strong against the pass, ranking 7th with 187.6 yards per game allowed. Green Bay has really struggled against the run, though, ranking 27th at 133.0 YPG allowed. That's where Chargers RB Austin Ekeler comes in. He is a dynamic option, as he can be a force in the run game and catching the ball out of the backfield.

The defense needs to be better for the Bolts, too, and it should be against QB Jordan Love and the Packers. Green Bay ranks in the bottom half of the league in all offensive categories.

While the Chargers always seem to be involved in close games, they're a respectable 2-1 SU/ATS against the NFC North this season. Look for the CHARGERS -3 (-110) to get the job done on the road, as they have a more formidable offense.

Leg 2: COWBOYS -10.5 (-110) at Panthers – 1 p.m. (FOX)

As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys (6-3) spanked the Giants 49-17 last week, going for 30 or more points for the 5th time in 9 games this season. In addition, the 'Boys easily covered the biggest number on the board this season at the 17.5 points.

On the flip side, the Panthers (1-8) have been an unmitigated disaster, from ownership to coaching to personnel. It's very early in his career, but QB Bryce Young doesn't seem to be the answer. The Panthers mortgaged the future with several future 1st-round picks and their top receiver in D.J. Moore, when they could have selected QB C.J. Stroud, who has led the Houston Texans to 5 wins and in playoff contention.

In addition, Carolina coach Frank Reich relinquished play-calling duties on offense to Thomas Brown. That experiment lasted 3 games, and now Reich takes back the duties. What are they doing in Charlotte?

The Cowboys should roll in and take advantage of all of the dysfunctionality. Yes, Carolina's only win was against the aforementioned Stroud and the Texans, but the Panthers aren't doing a Texas two-step this Sunday with an upset of the Cowboys.

Dallas should get into the 30's on the scoreboard, and Carolina doesn't have the horses to come close to that kind of production.

Leg 3: VIKINGS +2.5 (-110) at Broncos – 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

The play of Vikings QB Joshua Dobbs since landing in the Twin Cities has been remarkable. He joined Minnesota (6-4) on a Wednesday in Week 9 and was thrust into action when rookie QB Jaren Hall went down in Atlanta that Sunday. Dobbs entered and led the offense to a win. He started in Week 10 and engineered a 27-19 victory as 3-point home underdogs against the New Orleans Saints. He is turning into one of the best stories in the NFL in 2023.

Now, Dobbs will tangle with the Denver Broncos (4-5) at Mile High. The Broncos are just 2-3 SU/ATS in 5 home games. They are coming off a short week after a stunning Monday night 24-22 win as 7.5-point dogs in Buffalo.

Making matters worse for the Broncos, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson might be ready to return from a hamstring injury which has hampered him since Week 5. It's no guarantee he'll be ready to return, but he is ramping up activities and hasn't been ruled out.

Without Jefferson, Minnesota is still a good play. With him, it is a great play.

Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $59.58 (payout = $69.58).

Try out the Paste BN Parlay Calculator.

Leg 4-*: STEELERS ML (+100) at Browns – 1 p.m. (CBS)

*-If you want to add a 4th play to this parlay.

This is a huge AFC North matchup as both teams are 6-3, a half game back of the Baltimore Ravens (7-3).

The Browns are coming off a tremendous 33-31 comeback win as 6-point road dogs at the Ravens, but they ended up losing starting QB Deshaun Watson to a season-ending shoulder injury. Rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been named as the surprise starter instead of veteran QB PJ Walker for this Sunday's titanic battle on the shores of Lake Erie.

In addition to the loss of Watson, the Browns lost starting OL Jedrick Wills, placed on the injured reserve list with a knee injury. Plus, rookie OL Dawand Jones (knee) and OL Wyatt Teller (ankle) are also nursing injuries. Steelers pass rusher T.J. Watt and the rest of his buddies have to be licking their chops at the prospects of getting to Thompson-Robinson with little resistance.

Pittsburgh has won 4 of the past 5 head-to-head meetings since the start of the 2021-22 regular season, including a 26-22 home victory as 2-point underdogs on a Monday night which saw the Browns lose RB Nick Chubb (knee) for the season. Pittsburgh has posted a ridiculous 45-10-1 record in the past 56 meetings since Jan. 2, 1994, and it appears things are crumbling for the Browns again ahead of a game with their biggest rivals.

Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $129.16 (payout = $139.16).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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