NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 11

John Holler | Staff Writer

Week 11 is underway, and this is the time of season that we start to see teams that are out of realistic competition for playoff spots start looking at other players. It may not necessarily be tanking per se, but it can get close when injured vets aren't asked to play through their injuries.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds and lines, and tab the 5 best NFL Week 11 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

This week's picks include a running back going Over his projected number and another going Under, a prolific wide receiver and emerging young tight end both hitting the Over and one of the most dependable wide receivers in the league scoring a touchdown.

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS

Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

NFL Week 11 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:35 a.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Lions TE Sam LaPorta OVER 43.5 receiving yards (-115)

- Host Bears, 1 p.m. (FOX)

LaPorta is a rookie, but he has been consistently producing strong numbers all season. Over his last 8 games, he has surpassed this number 6 times and had 36 and 40 yards in the other 2 games.

The Bears are allowing 255 passing yards a game, and Jared Goff has been averaging 310 yards a game over the last 4 games. If he gets anywhere near 300 yards again, you can bank on LaPorta being a big part of it (or at least 44 or more yards).

Chargers WR Keenan Allen SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+115)

- At Packers, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The Packers are among the league leaders in not allowing touchdown passes - just 8 all season - but the Chargers throw as much as any team in the league. QB Justin Herbert locks in on Allen everywhere on the field.

Allen has scored 6 touchdowns in his last 8 games and he's getting good return on investment with this bet. He is averaging 8 receptions a game and has 27 catches in his last 3 games.

The Chargers are on the outside looking in for the playoffs and need to string together wins to get back in the Wild Card chase. The team will lean heavily on Herbert, and he will lean on Allen to get the job done.

Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 76.5 receiving yards (-115)

- Host Jets, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Entering play this weekend, not only are the Bills out of the playoffs, there are 2 teams ahead of them in the fight to move up into the last Wild Card spot. When a team has its back is against the wall, the leaders need to step up. Diggs is front and center among those players.

Diggs is a volume receiver. He has caught 6 or more passes in 9 of 10 games this season. He has topped this number in 3 of his last 4 games against the Jets, including 10 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown in Week 1.

With the heat on the Bills to start stacking wins, it will require a heavy dose of Diggs. If he has an average day of 6 or more receptions, that should be enough to elevate past this number.

Raiders RB Josh Jacobs UNDER 66.5 rushing yards (-115)

- At Dolphins, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Jacobs has been high-volume since the coaching change in Vegas. In his last 2 games, he has 53 carries for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, that production came against the Giants and the Jets. Miami is a completely different animal.

The Dolphins haven't lost at home all season and have blown out their opponents - winning games by 50, 15, 21 and 14 points. Coming off their bye week, the Dolphins have the batteries recharged and will look to come out fast.

If Miami gets a double-digit lead, the Raiders won't have the luxury of trying to establish the run and give a steady dose of it. Jacobs is averaging just 3.3 yards a carry, which would require 20 carries to top this number, and he may be lucky to get 15 carries.

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey OVER 68.5 rushing yards (-115)

- Host Buccaneers, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

The 49ers have been pretty easy to predict. If McCaffrey is the focal point of the offense on the ground, they win. If he isn't, they lose.

In San Francisco's 6 wins, McCaffrey has averaged 101 yards a game and has had more than 15 carries in every game. In the Niners' 3 losses, he has never rushed more than 15 times and has averaged 48 yards a game.

The Buccaneers have a solid run defense, but the 49ers will pound McCaffrey at them until he breaks off a big run. If he has a typical day of approaching 20 carries, it will be extremely difficult for the Bucs defense to keep him under 69 rushing yards.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Access more NFL coverage:

[]

Facebook Twitter Email