Florida State at Florida odds, picks and predictions
The Florida State Seminoles (11-0) and Florida Gators (5-6) meet Saturday night in Gainesville. Kickoff at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is slated for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Florida State vs. Florida odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Florida State, ranked No. 4 in in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by Paste BN Sports, remained unbeaten after last Saturday's win over FCS North Alabama. FSU did not cover a 48-point spread in a 58-13 triumph that saw a 521-226 Seminoles dominance in total yards. The win was costly, however, as FSU star QB Jordan Travis was injured and is lost for the season.
Florida lost to now-No. 10 Missouri 33-31 last Saturday on a field goal with 5 seconds remaining. The setback was the Gators' 4th loss in a row, but UF covered as a 12-point underdog to snap a 3-game skid against the spread (ATS). This game is Florida’s 3rd straight game against a ranked foe.
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Florida State at Florida odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:54 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Florida State -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Florida +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
Against the spread (ATS): Florida State -6.5 (-115) | Florida +6.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Florida State at Florida picks and predictions
Prediction
Florida State 34, Florida 20
Moneyline
Both teams are without their starting signal callers, as Florida's Graham Mertz suffered a collarbone fracture last week. Redshirt junior QB Tate Rodemaker is slated to start and he's 20 of 31 for 376 yards this season.
FSU is a near-lean here, but PASS unless you have the bankroll to absorb the outlay.
Against the spread
Florida State won last year’s game 45-38 and is 8-4 in this series since 2010.
The Swamp is not quite the advantage it once was. Florida is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games at home; the Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against the Seminoles.
Look for FSU to still be diverse and efficient on offense. The Gators defense has coughed up 5.0 yards per rush. That and what has been a staunch 'Noles 2nd-half defense figure as keys in Florida State -- a team motivated to show no extraordinary effects of the Travis injury -- icing this one away with a double-digit lead.
BACK FLORIDA STATE -6.5 (-115).
Over/Under
The Over is 5-for-5 in UF's last 5 games. And the Over has prevailed in 4 of the last 5 games in this series.
Both teams rank in the nation's top-35 in turning red-zone trips into 6-pointers. Expect some turnover/short-field lean toward FSU and some penalty-yardage help to the Gators.
BACK THE OVER 49.5 (-110).
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