Miami Heat at New York Knicks odds, picks and predictions

Myles Cohen | Staff Writer

The Miami Heat (10-5) face the New York Knicks (8-6) on Friday in group play of the in-season tournament at Madison Square Garden. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Heat vs. Knicks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; Miami beat New York 4-2 in East semifinals last season

The Heat defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 129-96 Wednesday, covering as 1.5-point road underdogs as the Over (212.5) hit. Miami has won 9 of 10 and looks to continue its early-season momentum, even with some key pieces banged up. Miami has a flawless 2-0 record in Group B play, with its latest in-season tournament victory coming against the Charlotte Hornets 111-105 Nov. 14.

The Knicks finished 3-2 straight up on their 5-game road trip, failing to cover as 2.5-point underdogs in a 117-100 loss at the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday as the Over (214.5) cashed. They will look to improve on their 1-1 Group B record after falling to the Milwaukee Bucks 110-105 Nov. 3 — they beat the Washington Wizards 120-99 Nov. 17.

Heat at Knicks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:51 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Knicks -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +5.5 (-110) | Knicks -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 212.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Heat at Knicks key injuries

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (hip) questionable
G Tyler Herro (ankle) out
G Duncan Robinson (thumb) questionable

Knicks

G Evan Fournier (ankle) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Heat at Knicks picks and predictions

Prediction

Knicks 111, Heat 99

Moneyline

With the myriad of injuries Miami is facing, I do expect the Knicks (-225) to take this one. However, -225 is far too big of a favorite and not an efficient use of your units. If you want to look at adding Knicks ML to a parlay, go for it. Miami has now won 9 of its last 10, and one has to expect it will start to struggle offensively at some point without its leading scorer this season in Herro (22.9 points per game).

PASS. Bet the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

For some of the reasons above, the Knicks should be regarded as hefty favorites to roll here. With Adebayo also banged up, the Heat leaned on G Kyle Lowry to hit 7 three-pointers last time out. This way of generating buckets simply isn't sustainable at this point in his career. Knicks G Jalen Brunson is now top 20 in the NBA in scoring at 24.2 PPG and will be a difference maker from the perimeter while setting up teammates.

BET KNICKS -5.5 (-110).

Over/Under

With the Heat missing some of their stars, look for them to have trouble getting the ball in the basket. If Adebayo can go, that will do wonders for slowing down Brunson from a Miami perspective. However, a 37-year-old Lowry can't be depended on to stop top-tier guards, such as Brunson, on his own.

The Knicks will look to beat Miami from deep. Brunson is 22-41 from behind the arc in his last 5 outings, and the Heat are bottom 10 in opponent corner 3s attempted, according to Covers.com. Something has to give.

LEAN UNDER 212.5 (-110).

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