NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 12

John Holler | Staff Writer

Thanksgiving and Black Friday took away 4 games to choose from, but this week we're looking at some young stars doing their thing -- with 4 of our 5 picks projected to go Over their totals.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 12 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

This week's picks include 3 running backs who weren't their teams' starter in Week 1, an emerging tight end becoming a bigger factor in his team's offense and a scrambling QBk taking advantage of a blitzing defense in prime time.

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NFL Week 12 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:10 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Browns RB Jerome Ford OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-115)

- At Broncos, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

The Browns offense looks a lot different without QB Deshaun Watson and RB Nick Chubb, but Ford is still key piece of the offense.

Over the last 3 weeks, Ford has rushed 51 times (an average of 17 carries a game) and it will be difficult to keep him under this number if he approaches that many attempts.

The best thing Ford has going for him is the dismal Broncos run defense. Denver is last in rush defense, allowing 160 rushing yards a game (22 yards a game more than No. 31). In a game that looks to be low scoring and dependent on ball control, Ford should get enough opportunities to crack this number.

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-115)

- At Eagles, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Kincaid has seen his role in the Bills offense grow considerably over the last month. The rookie has been used a lot like the Chiefs use Travis Kelce in recent weeks.

In the last 5 games, Kincaid has caught 34 passes (almost 7 catches a game) and hasn't had less than 5 receptions in any of them.

With the Bills expected to be throwing a lot against the league's 28th-ranked pass defense, there will be opportunities for Kincaid down the field and, if he continues his streak of 5 or more receptions a game, he should have the one splash play need to top this number.

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor UNDER 82.5 rushing yards (-115)

- Host Buccaneers, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Colts have struggled to run the ball since Taylor returned from IR. He has topped this number just once in the 6 games he has played this season and hasn't topped this number in the 3 games he has had 18 or more rushing attempts.

Things have gotten worse the last couple of weeks. Taylor has averaged less than 3 yards per rush in the last 2 games, rushing 41 times for just 116 yards (2.8 yards per attempt).

The Buccaneers have the 5th-ranked rush defense, allowing just 90 yards a game and will make shutting down Taylor the focus of their defensive attack.

Steelers RB Jaylen Warren OVER 47.5 rushing yards (-120)

- At Bengals, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Steelers have been loyal to Najee Harris, but Warren is quickly becoming the most important player in their offense.

In his last 3 games, Warren has fewer carries (35) than Harris (44), but he has rushed for 418 yards -- a eye-popping 11.9 yards per carry. He has earned getting a larger role in the offense, especially against a Bengals run defense that has been gashed all season.

Cincinnati is 31st in the league in both rushing yards allowed (138.3) and yards per carry (5.05) and have been giving up splash plays too often. That is Warren's M.O. and he should get enough chances to top this number.

Bears QB Justin Fields OVER 52.5 rushing yards (-115)

- At Vikings, Monday 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

Fields emerged last season as the primary runner in the Bears offense. In 2022, he had seven games with 10 or more rushing attempts and blew past this number every time he did.

He returned from injury last week and rushed 18 times for 104 yards against the Lions because Detroit was dialing up pressure defense. Nobody blitzes as often as Minnesota, which becomes the key for this bet.

If Fields is sacked, it doesn't count against his rushing numbers. If he escapes the blitz, it does count. The Bears are trying to define where Fields fits into their long-term plans, so look for him to be running early and often against the Vikings and surpassing this number in a big way.

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