C-USA Championship: New Mexico State at Liberty odds, picks and predictions
The New Mexico State Aggies (10-3, 7-1 Conference USA) visit the Liberty Flames (12-0, 8-0) in the Conference USA Championship on Friday. Kick from Williams Stadium is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the New Mexico State vs. Liberty odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
New Mexico State is on an 8-game winning streak after knocking off Jacksonville State 20-17 Saturday. QB Diego Pavia went 23 of 34 for 269 yards with a touchdown and 2 interceptions. His top receiver was WR Trent Hudson, who hauled in 5 receptions for 70 yards and a TD. Pavia led the Aggies on the ground with 19 carries for 68 yards, but it was RB Jamoni Jones who had the Aggies' lone rushing TD.
Liberty will be looking to complete its undefeated season on Thursday after it beat UTEP 42-28 Saturday. QB Kaidon Salter completed just 4 of 11 passes for 22 yards with a TD. The Flames dominated the run game with 441 yards rushing and 5 TDs, and RB Quinton Cooley led the way with 3 TDs. Five Flames rushers had at least 47 yards on the ground.
Liberty is No. 22 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by Paste BN Sports.
Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+
New Mexico State at Liberty odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): New Mexico State +350 (bet $100 to win $350) | Liberty -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): New Mexico State +11.5 (-110) | Liberty -11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
New Mexico State at Liberty picks and predictions
Prediction
Liberty 31, New Mexico State 21
Moneyline
PASS.
At -450 odds, there is no value betting on Liberty, which has not lost a game all season.
Against the spread
LEAN NEW MEXICO STATE +11.5 (-110).
While Liberty has been dominant this season, New Mexico State has been dominant ATS. The Aggies are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games, including 3 straight covers as underdogs, and have a 10-2-1 ATS record this season. Most impressively, they beat Auburn 31-10 to cover as 25-point road underdogs Nov. 18.
Liberty has failed to cover in its last 2 games, both as a favorite, and is 4-4 ATS in its last 8. However, if they find a groove in the run game, the Flames have the ability to extend their lead quickly, which is what merits the lean.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 56.5 (-110).
In order for New Mexico State to stay in the game, it will have to tame Liberty's offense, which has scored at least 38 points in each of its last 6 outings. The Aggies have found success limiting opponents to less than 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games.
With Liberty's tendancy to run the ball, if the Aggies can limit the explosive plays, this Under will be in great shape.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @seth_orlemann on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from Paste BN Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin / Recruiting / Transfer portal / College Football Playoffs / College Sports Wire