MAC Championship: Miami vs. Toledo odds, picks and predictions
The Miami Redhawks (10-2) and Toledo Rockets (11-1) clash in Saturday’s Mid-American Conference Championship Game in Detroit. Kickoff at Ford Field is slated for noon ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Miami vs. Toledo odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
MAC East champion Miami snuck by Ball State 17-15 Saturday, failing to cover a -2.5. Miami blocked a field goal attempt by the Cardinals with 1:04 left to seal its 4th consecutive victory. MU was outgained 365 yards to 216, the Redhawks’ lowest single-game total since losing to the Miami Hurricanes on Sept. 1.
MAC West winner Toledo earned a 32-17 win last Friday at Central Michigan as a -9.5 favorite. The win was the 11th in a row for the Rockets, who opened their fall campaign with a 30-28 loss to Illinois Sept. 2. One of those 11 victories came Oct. 21 against Miami in Oxford, when UT went wire-to-wire in a 21-17 triumph.
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Miami vs. Toledo odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Miami +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Toledo -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Miami +7.5 (-105) | Toledo -7.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Miami vs. Toledo picks and predictions
Prediction
Toledo 21, Miami 20
Moneyline
Look to the spread for the best value here. PASS.
Against the spread
Miami coach Chuck Martin has a habit of getting his Redhawks in gear this time of the season. Since 2015, MU is 21-12 ATS in November and December games.
Miami is looking for a measure of retribution for the Oct. 21 game that saw the Redhawks lose by 4. QB Brett Gabbert was injured for the balance of the season in that game. MU now lines up with more of a run threat in QB Aveon Smith, and the Redhawks have been solid in rushing the ball, both to 1st downs and scoring TDs late in the season. That augers well into the weakest part of the Toledo defense: stopping the ground game.
Rockets QB Dequan Finn is a terrific dual-threat signal-caller, but he's had plenty of moments away from home where he has looked more human. And in October against Miami, Finn was just 16 of 28 for 160 yards.
MU is quite good in defending the pass, and its defense has enough havoc-causing ability that it may well be able to create some short-field opportunities for the Redhawk offense.
Figure on a tight game with few big-momentum plays. Miami K Graham Nicholson (23 of 23 in field goals, long of 52) is the best kicker in the MAC and figures to be worth a tack-on 3 at some point. Toledo was favored by just 2.5 in the 1st meeting; this hurdle looks a bit high.
BET MIAMI +7.5 (-105).
Over/Under
These 2 teams have a combined O/U record of 12-12 this season. The past 4 MU-UT games have netted a 2-2 split.
The defenses stand out here. In contest we can peg as having a below-average tempo, this total is a well-made one.
AVOID.
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