SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Alabama odds, picks and predictions
The Georgia Bulldogs (12-0, 8-0 SEC) and Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, 8-0) meet in the SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Georgia vs. Alabama odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Bulldogs eased by rival Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale 31-23 in Atlanta last Saturday, but they came nowhere near covering a 24-point number. The Bulldogs are unbeaten this season, but Georgia is a very ordinary 5-7 against the spread (ATS). The Under has cashed in 3 of the past 4 games overall.
The Crimson Tide shook off an upset bid from rival Auburn in the regular-season finale, winning 27-24 in another classic Iron Bowl game. The point total was their lowest since a 24-21 win over Arkansas, and the non-cover snapped a 4-0 ATS run for the Tide. The Over has cashed in 5 straight, while going 7-0-1 in the past 8 outings overall.
Alabama has dominated this series head-to-head during its championship run over the past decade or so. Since 2008, Bama has won 7 of the past 8 meetings straight up with the teams 4-4 ATS. The Over is 3-1-1 in the past 5 meetings, and 6-2-1 in the past 9 in the series.
The most recent meeting was in the CFP National Championship Game on Jan. 10, 2022, with Georgia hoisting the glass egg after a 33-18 win and cover as 3-point favorites as the Under (52.5) cashed.
The most recent meeting in the SEC title game went to Alabama on Dec. 4, 2021, as the Tide rolled to a 41-24 win as 6-point 'dogs as the Over (48.5) cashed. These teams have met 3 times since 2012 in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, and Bama has won all 3 meetings, with Georgia covering twice. Alabama also won the 2018 CFP National Championship Game against Georgia on Jan. 8, 2018, a 26-23 victory in overtime.
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Georgia vs. Alabama odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Georgia -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Alabama +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread (ATS): Georgia -5.5 (-110) | Alabama +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Georgia vs. Alabama picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 30, Georgia 27
Moneyline
ALABAMA (+180) will net you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that's too tempting to pass up.
The Crimson Tide have played well, more often than not, since the team's lone setback at home to Texas on Sept. 9. After a near-miss at South Florida of all places, and some instability at the QB position early on, Alabama was written off. But reports of its death were greatly exaggerated.
Bama has won 10 straight, while covering 7 of the past 9, and here we are, with the Tide knocking on the door of another CFP bid.
I think Georgia (-225) will be just fine if it suffers a loss here, similar to 2021, when it fell to Alabama, and then won the rematch for all the marbles. Alabama has won 7 of the past 8 meetings, and if it loses, it is out, and headed for a non-CFP bowl. There is more pressure on Bama, and that's when it seems to play its best.
Against the spread
ALABAMA +5.5 (-110) is a good play if you're not quite feeling it on the moneyline.
Again, the Crimson Tide has covered 7 of the past 9 games overall, and it is a rarity Bama is an underdog. If fact, the last time coach Nick Saban and the Tide was a 'dog was the natty in January 2022. Alabama has been an underdog just 3 times in the past 193 games since the start of the 2010 season, and each time it was an underdog against Georgia. Alabama is 2-1 ATS in those games, winning twice outright.
Over/Under
OVER 54.5 (-115) is the play in this clash of titans.
We've seen the Over go 3-1-1 in the past 5 meetings, and 6-2-1 in the past 9 in the series.
More important, the defense for Georgia, while still very good, is not quite as dominant as year's past. It has allowed 15.8 PPG and 294.3 total yards per game, so definitely not a sieve. But it isn't as good as the past 2 years.
Alabama has also been just a touch off from its usual championship defensive form, too, allowing 17.9 PPG. And really, even when both of these teams have been at their best defensively, it hasn't mattered, as is evidenced above. When Georgia and Alabama meet, a lot of points are sure to follow.
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