Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Nathan Beighle | Staff Writer

The Miami Heat (11-8) welcome the Indiana Pacers (9-8) to Kaseya Center Saturday. Tip is set for 8 p.m. ET. Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Pacers vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Heat lead 1-0.

The Heat beat the Pacers at home Thursday 142-132, covering as a 3.5-point favorite. They have covered 4 of their last 6 and are 9-10 against the spread (ATS) this season. Miami is 2-5 ATS at home yet just 5-6 ATS as a favorite. It is led by G Tyler Herro, who is averaging 22.9 points per game. Herro hasn't played since Nov. 8 with an ankle injury.

The Pacers have lost 3 of their last 4 games, including that 10-point defeat in Miami Thursday. They have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and are 9-8 ATS on the season. Indiana plays at one of the fastest paces in the NBA and has gone Over in 14 of its last 15 games. It is led by G Tyrese Haliburton, who is averaging 27 points and 11.8 assists per game.

Pacers at Heat odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Pacers +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Heat -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Pacers +3.5 (-110) | Heat -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 240 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Pacers at Heat key injuries

Pacers

G Tyrese Haliburton (knee) questionable
F Jalen Smith (heel) out

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (hip) out
F Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
G Tyler Herro (ankle) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Pacers at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 121, Pacers 118

Moneyline

BET HEAT (-154).

The Heat have played well at home over the last few weeks. They are 4-1 over their last 5 home games and beat the Pacers by 10 Thursday despite allowing Indiana to shoot 51% from the field.

The Pacers are 3-3 on the road but have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Given 2 of those 3 were by 4 or fewer points, playing the moneyline is the smarter decision here. The Pacers have lost 5 of their last 8 as well.

Given Indiana's recent struggles, take HEAT (-154).

Against the spread

SKIP.

Take the Heat on the moneyline instead of on the spread here.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 240 (-110).

There's no real way to reason an Under with the Pacers, but the Heat's defense has historically been one of the NBA's best. Both offenses shot over 50% Thursday, which is doubtful to be repeated. The Heat rank 9th in defensive rating and 22nd in pace, which suggests a slow, more methodical game, unlike what fans saw Thursday.

Despite the Pacers' desire to push the ball, this total is just too high to suggest the Over. The Heat have gone Under in 2 of their last 4 and have scored under 100 points in 2 of those 4. Back UNDER 240 (-110).

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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