Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders odds, picks and predictions

Drew Phelps | Staff Writer

The Miami Dolphins (8-3) face the Washington Commanders (4-8) Sunday in Week 13 NFL action. Kickoff at FedExField is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dolphins vs. Commanders odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Dolphins beat up on the New York Jets 34-13 on Black Friday. This was their 2nd straight win since having their bye week. They easily covered as 10-point favorites, and the Over (40) hit. Miami's talented wide receiver duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 216 receiving yards on 17 catches against a good Jets secondary. The Dolphins continue to lead the NFL in yards per game (430.5) and sit in 2nd in points per game (30.8).

Washington dropped its 3rd straight game with a 45-10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. It did not cover as a 13.5-point underdog, and the Over (48) hit. The Commanders allowed 431 total yards to the Cowboys but QB Sam Howell passed for 300 or more yards for the 4th time in his last 5 games. Thanksgiving Day was their 5th loss in 6 games, and they have allowed an average of 29 PPG over that stretch.

The Commanders did win the last head-to-head matchup with the Dolphins, 17-16 on Oct. 13, 2019. Miami covered the 6-point spread as an underdog, and the Under (42) hit.

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Dolphins at Commanders odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:47 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Dolphins -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Commanders +350 (bet $100 to win $350)
Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins -9.5 (-110) | Commanders +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Dolphins at Commanders key injuries

Dolphins

OT Terron Armstead (knee/quad) questionable
OL Lester Cotton (illness) questionable
OL Robert Jones (knee) questionable
OT Kendall Lamm (back) questionable
S Jevon Holland (knee) questionable

Commanders

CB Emmanuel Forbes Jr. (elbow) out
DE James Smith-Williams (hamstring) out
C Tyler Larsen (knee) questionable

Dolphins at Commanders picks and predictions

Prediction

Dolphins 41, Commanders 20

Moneyline

AVOID.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Dolphins (-450) put up 500 yards of total offense and score 5 or more touchdowns in this game against a terrible Commanders defense. I'm just not going to risk nearly 5 units to win 1, and nor should you.

Against the spread

BET DOLPHINS -9.5 (-110).

Did you see what happened to the Commanders on Thanksgiving? Dak Prescott and Co. torched this secondary for nearly 350 yards through the air. Washington is allowing 300 yards passing per game over their last 3, and the Dolphins put up the most yards through the air in the NFL.

I would be absolutely stunned if Washington keeps this within 10 points.

Over/Under

BET OVER 49.5 (-110).

You've got a side averaging 30 PPG that posted 70 points against a team earlier this season facing off against the worst defense in the NFL when it comes to points allowed (29.2). This is a recipe for an Over if I've ever seen one.

The Commanders can score as well. They are averaging 20 PPG, and the Dolphins defense allows over 3 touchdowns a game.

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