NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 13

John Holler | Staff Writer

Just when you hoped we were done with bye weeks, 6 teams are off this week — greatly reducing a lot of options.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 13 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

This week's picks include a couple of veterans not hitting their rushing projections, 2 perennial Pro Bowlers going over their numbers and an unsung receiver catching a touchdown.

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NFL Week 13 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+150)

- At Commanders, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Waddle only has 3 touchdowns this season, but 2 of them have come in his 3 games against NFC teams. In fact, dating back to last season, 6 of Waddle's last 8 touchdowns have been against NFC opponents.

When teams meet just once every 4 years, which is the case with most non-conference opponents, they often change things up from their normal operations against division or conference opponents. Waddle has scored 6 touchdowns in his last 7 games against NFC teams, while scoring just 2 touchdowns in his last 12 games against AFC opponents.

The Dolphins should get 3 or 4 touchdowns in this game and getting a 150 percent return on investment is good value for a guy who will draw more single coverage than WR Tyreek Hill.

Broncos QB Russell Wilson UNDER 24.5 rushing yards (-110)

- At Texans, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Texans have been very strong against the run, and Wilson won't likely have many rushing lanes open because the Texans are going to flood the run lanes.

Wilson has rushed for 30 or more yards in 3 of the last 4 games, but he was running a lot — 8 or more rushes in 3 of the last 4 games. That won't be lost on the Texans' defensive play-calling.

The other scenario that may come into play is that the Texans offense can put up a lot of points. The Broncos will look to run the conventional way with RB Javonte Williams, and Wilson will need to break off a long run — which isn't his strength at this point in his career — if he's supposed to top this number.

Titans RB Derrick Henry OVER 61.5 rushing yards (-135)

- Host Colts, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Titans are a different team at home and coach Mike Vrabel has a simple outlook — keep pounding the rock with Henry.

Henry has never rushed fewer than 15 times in a home game against the Colts since 2017, and has rushed 58 times for 241 yards in his last 2 home games.

While Henry has been up and down this season, he has been consistent at home. In 5 games in Nashville, he has never rushed for fewer than 76 yards. That streak should continue.

Packers RB AJ Dillon UNDER 45.5 rushing yards (-115)

- Host Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Dillon hasn't topped this in 4 of his last 5 games and has been extremely non-productive at Lambeau Field. In 5 homes games this season, Dillon has posted anemic rushing totals of 33, 11, 11, 40 and 29.

What makes this low number seem too high is that the Chiefs defense gets the job done consistently and has helped carry the offense when it struggles.

Throw in the fact that the Chiefs have been assassins in December and January the last 5 years — and that QB Patrick Mahomes can light things up at any time — and the Packers could find themselves trying to come from behind, which doesn't lend itself to a steady dose of Dillon.

Eagles WR A.J. Brown OVER 73.5 receiving yards (-115)

- Host 49ers, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

This may be the 1st of 2 times these teams meet with the 2nd time being to decide who represents the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Brown has had a couple of very down weeks over the last 2 games, which is something that doesn't happen often. Brown has 6 or more receptions in 8 of 11 games this season and will be pushing QB Jalen Hurts to get him the ball.

While the 49ers are an opportunistic defense, they do get thrown on. Opponents have twice as many pass plays as run plays against the San Francisco defense, and the Eagles will likely look to replicate that stat. If Brown catches 5 passes, he likely blows past this number with at least 1 big play downfield and some chain-moving catches.

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