NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 14

John Holler | Staff Writer

With most division and playoff races extremely close, Week 14 is going to have a series of matchups that will go a long way to create the separation from the teams that will make the postseason and those that won't.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 14 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

This week's picks include 2 of the elite receivers in the league proving why they're at the top of their games, a receiving running back doing his thing in the pass game, a Super Bowl-minted QB being more one-dimensional than usual and a revenge play from a veteran making his return to his former home stadium.

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NFL Week 14 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:44 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase OVER 67.5 receiving yards (-115)

- Host Colts, 1 p.m. (CBS)

In the 2 games QB Jake Browning started since QB Joe Burrow was injured, Chase has caught 15 passes for 230 yards, including 11 receptions for 149 yards in a must-win game at the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.

The Bengals find ways to get Chase the ball, even if it means throwing multiple bubble screens. Chase has the most targets of any other Bengals receiver since Browning took over and he will lean on him again this week.

Chase has gone over this number in 8 of his last 10 games and the Colts are allowing 222.1 passing yards a game. It's hard to imagine the Bengals throwing for that many yards and Chase not having a big chunk of it.

Lions RB David Montgomery SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (-120)

- At Bears 1 p.m. (FOX)

There's nothing like a revenge play for someone with an axe to grind. Montgomery is that player as he makes his return to Chicago.

Montgomery spent 4 seasons in Chicago and was their bell cow runner. But when he hit free agency in the offseason, the Bears made no effort to re-sign him.

Since missing 2 games in October, Montgomery has scored touchdowns in each of the last 4 games he has played (including against the Bears in Detroit Nov. 19) because coach Dan Campbell calls his number at the goal line.

Everyone knows that Montgomery will be amped to show the Bears they made a mistake letting him go to a division rival and Campbell has the mentality to do everything he can to get Montgomery the ball in the red zone to exact his revenge.

Saints RB Alvin Kamara OVER 4.5 receptions (+100)

- Host Panthers, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Receptions are what makes fantasy running backs so valuable and few consistently get the volume that Kamara gets on a regular basis.

Over his last 7 games, Kamara has caught 6 or more passes 4 times and. In the 3 games he didn't, he caught 4 passes in each game.

If QB Derek Carr clears concussion protocol, he will likely be looking to dump off passes which would likely go to Kamara. If QB Jameis Winston starts, he will likely take a conservative approach to beat the hapless Panthers.

Either way, it looks likely that Kamara will be in the middle of the passing attack.

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts UNDER 37.5 rushing yards (-120)

- At Cowboys, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

A couple of things go against Hurts hitting the Over on this one -- his career history against the Cowboys and his recent history this season.

There has been speculation that a knee injury Hurts sustained early in the season is still bothering him and it has showed up in his approach to rushing. While the "Brotherly Shove" is still in play, his rushing production has taken a nosedive.

He hasn't surpassed his projected number in 5 of the last 6 games. In 5 career games against the Cowboys, he has topped this rushing number just once -- and none in the last 3 games.

Hurts will need to have a big game for the Eagles to come away with a win, but it will have to be much more with his arm than his legs.

Raiders WR Davante Adams OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-115)

- Host Vikings, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

There are a couple of huge factors that play into this pick. First is the connection rookie QB Aidan O'Connell has developed with Adams as his go-to target.

In the last 3 games with O'Connell as the starter, Adams has been targeted 33 times, catching 18 passes for 241 yards -- putting up weekly totals of 86, 82 and 73 yards. The Vikings have allowed big receiving games to the perceived obvious target throughout the season.

The second factor is that Adams owns the Vikings. Granted, it was with the Packers, but in his last 6 games with Green Bay, he has topped 100 yards 5 times and has more than 150 twice.

With WR Justin Jefferson back for the Vikings and the belief he will return to his Pro Bowl form, the Raiders will need an answer, which is likely going to require a heavy dose of Adams.

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